Consolidation is on the roll – OCBC

The Euro (EUR) fell below 1.05 overnight but the dip was brief. Last seen at 1.0568 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

EUR to continue suffering from the US election outcome

“Daily momentum is bearish though RSI shows tentative signs of turning from near oversold conditions. Near term consolidation not ruled out but bias to sell rallies. Resistance at 1.06, 1.0740 (76.4% fibo fibo retracement of 2024 low to high), 1.0780 (21 DMA). Support at 1.05, 1.0450/1.05 levels.”

“Overall, EUR should continue to bear the brunt of the US election outcome. Trump presidency will result in shifts in US foreign, trade policies. The potential 20% tariff (if implemented) can hurt Europe where growth is already slowing, and that US is EU’s top export destination.”

“On German politics, the minority government faces economic and diplomatic challenges. PM Scholz is seeking confidence vote earlier on 16 Dec instead of 15 Jan – but is expected to lose. Snap elections likely planned for 23 Feb. Elsewhere wide EU-UST yield differentials continued to widen, validating EUR’s “fair value” relative to yield differentials.”