Until Bitcoin Hits $500K, It’s “Still Early”

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan outlines why he believes the path for Bitcoin to $500,000 is still in its early stages.

Bitcoin has been on a spectacular run, with its price soaring to new all-time highs. It is currently trading around $89,600, marking a 111% gain year-to-date and a 35% increase since the U.S. elections in early November. 

However, according to Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer, this is just the beginning of Bitcoin’s much larger journey.

Until Bitcoin $500K, “It’s Still Early”

In a recent memo to investors, Hougan argued that despite the current bullish trend, Bitcoin is still in its early days.

He believes that the true milestone for the cryptocurrency won’t be reached until its price hits $500,000 per coin—a figure that he says marks the transition from an emerging asset to a “mature” store of value, similar to gold.

Bitcoin’s Role as a Store of Value: Still Early

Hougan points out that Bitcoin’s role in the global financial system is still evolving. While Bitcoin has seen major institutional adoption, with some pensions and endowments making small investments, it is far from the level of acceptance and stability seen with traditional assets like gold. 

For Bitcoin to be considered “mature,” it must be widely held by central banks and institutions.

The $500,000 price target is based on a simple comparison to gold’s market size. Gold boasts a $17 trillion market, while Bitcoin’s capitalization is around $1.177 trillion. If Bitcoin captures 50% of gold’s store-of-value market, it will reach a price of about $500,000 per coin, Hougan explains.

What Would It Take to Reach $500K?

For Bitcoin to reach the $500K mark, Hougan outlines several key factors. First, he noted that Bitcoin’s adoption must broaden, with large institutional investors and even central banks beginning to allocate more capital. 

As it stands, governments hold about 20% of the world’s gold reserves, with less than 2% for Bitcoin. Closing this gap would be a significant step toward Bitcoin achieving its full potential.

The potential for government adoption is already beginning to take shape. One high-profile example is U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis’ push for a national Bitcoin reserve, which would see the U.S. government invest billions in Bitcoin.

WE ARE GOING TO BUILD A STRATEGIC BITCOIN RESERVE 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇺🇸

— Senator Cynthia Lummis (@SenLummis) November 6, 2024

The Path Beyond $500K

While Hougan’s target of $500K per coin is based on Bitcoin’s potential to capture a significant portion of gold’s market share, he is also optimistic about Bitcoin’s future beyond that threshold. 

He suggests that the total market for store-of-value assets will likely grow, driven by government debt expansion and currency debasement, creating additional opportunities for Bitcoin to gain value. 

Hougan even entertains the possibility of a $1 million Bitcoin, noting that the market for store-of-value assets is dynamic and could expand massively in the coming decades. For now, however, he believes $500K is a reasonable starting point, with BTC still in its formative stages.