Ethereum Set to Benefit the Most from Trump’s Election Win

At Devcon 2024, Lubin suggested that Ethereum could benefit from potential SEC leadership changes. This might alleviate at least some of the regulatory pressures that he believes disproportionately affected Ethereum. Lubin’s optimism coincided with Ethereum’s recent price surge and record ETF inflows. Additionally, Ethereum’s newly introduced “time machine” feature allows users to reverse certain blockchain transactions, adding another layer of functionality that could boost sentiment surrounding the altcoin even more. Meanwhile, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high, but traders and analysts doubt this will happen again in the near term.

Trump’s Win Could Ease SEC Pressure on Ethereum

Ethereum stands to gain a lot from Donald Trump’s recent presidential election victory, according to the CEO of Consensys Joe Lubin. At Devcon 2024 in Thailand, Lubin stated during an interview that Ethereum (ETH) is likely to benefit the most from the expected changes in the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) leadership. 

Lubin is convinced that most of the recent regulatory challenges faced by Ethereum is due to a partisan stance in the SEC. This perspective aligns with Lubin’s opinion that Ethereum, more than any other protocols, faced disproportionate scrutiny and restrictions under the current SEC leadership.

After a prolonged dispute with the SEC, which led Consensys to cut 20% of its workforce in October, Lubin now believes a shift in the regulatory climate will favor Ethereum. Trump’s election win already seems  to have ignited optimism in the crypto market as Bitcoin, Solana, and other altcoins saw their prices soar over the past few days. However, Ethereum was able to outperform its peers by climbing 22% in the last seven days. According to data from CoinMarketCap, ETH was trading hands at $3,181.31 at press time

ETH’s price action over the past 7 days (Source: CoinMarketCap)

Lubin pointed out that Ethereum’s resilience and maturity set it apart from other protocols in the ecosystem, which positions it perfectly to capitalize on the shifting regulatory landscape. He also stated that while Bitcoin is similarly mature, its utility is still a bit more specialized, which gives Ethereum a much broader scope for growth and adaptation. 

Looking ahead to Trump’s return to the White House on Jan. 20, Lubin expects SEC Chair Gary Gensler to resign, which will pave the way for a potential transition in the agency’s approach to digital assets. Lubin is hopeful that Mark Uyeda, a current SEC commissioner, might step in as acting chair. 

Ethereum ETF Inflows Accelerate

United States-based spot Ether ETF flows also turned net positive after the election. The big shift in investor sentiment was very evident after BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust recently recorded its second-largest inflow since its July debut. 

Ethereum ETF flows (Source: Farside Investors)

According to Farside Investors, Nov. 12 saw the nine spot Ether ETFs accumulated about $135.9 million in net inflows, which built on the $295 million record that was set just the day before. These consecutive inflow days resulted in a net positive total of $107.2 million across the nine funds for the first time since their launch.

BlackRock’s fund saw an inflow of $131.4 million on Nov. 12, and achieved a spot among the top six ETF launches of 2024 with $1.67 billion in total inflows to date. Other funds, including the Bitwise Ethereum ETF and Grayscale’s Ethereum Mini Trust, recorded additional inflows of $17 million and $12.7 million, respectively, while Ark 21Shares and VanEck’s funds also saw smaller gains.

Over the past five trading days, Ether ETFs attracted close to $650 million. This happened as ETH’s price rose by more than 20% over the past week. On the same day, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a robust $817.5 million in aggregate inflows.

Nate Geraci, the president of the ETF Store, shared on X that the convergence of crypto and ETFs captured the attention of major asset managers, politicians, and regulators. He described ETFs as a “bridge for the mainstream to access crypto.” Geraci firmly believes that once this bridge is established, the path for crypto adoption becomes irreversible.

Ethereum’s New “Time Machine”

The sentiment surrounding Ethereum could also receive a nice boost by the fact that Ethereum researcher and STXN co-founder Vlad Zamfir developed a feature that the company compares to a “time machine” that allows Ethereum users to reverse certain “Smart Transactions” on the blockchain. This feature was introduced at DevCon in Bangkok, and it allows users to set specific conditions for transaction timing and execution. 

Anuj Das Gupta, co-founder of STXN, described the feature as a breakthrough for smart contracts as it allows transactions to adapt to future conditions beyond the information that is available at their inception.

STXN’s CEO, Boris Mamlyuk, compared the innovation to Gmail’s “undo” feature, and pointed out how it brought new utility by allowing users to retract messages. Similarly, Smart Transactions make it possible for users to navigate forward and backward in transaction sequencing, which provides a function that could prevent loss from errors or malicious activity. According to Mamlyuk, STXN’s platform will let transactions be reversed if malicious actions are detected to reclaim any blockchain rewards that were gained from harmful behavior.

This time machine feature will be integrated into “CleanApp,” which is an application launched by Mamlyuk in 2013 that rewards users for reporting opportunities to clean or complete tasks. STXN also wants to expand its solution to other decentralized match-making applications, like a decentralized Uber.

Bitcoin Faces Strong Sell Walls

While Joe Lubin sees promise in Ethereum’s future, the same can not really be said for Bitcoin at the moment. Although Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $90,240 on Nov. 13, volatility soon brought its price down to around $87,413. This very brief rally above the key $90,000 level revealed the psychological and technical significance of the milestone, but also introduced caution among traders as sell-side liquidity at $90,000 and a larger $177 million sell wall at $100,000 created resistance.

Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, shared his thoughts on the need for Bitcoin to build support in this new range to prevent a potential retrace. Data from CoinGlass revealed thickening liquidity around $90,000 as BTC’s price stabilized slightly below this point. Material Indicators’ “Trend Precognition” tool also issued a potential short-term downtrend signal on the daily chart, which suggests that Bitcoin could hold below $90,000 temporarily.

Trader Credibull Crypto acknowledged that Bitcoin’s current price surge exceeded his expectations, but also added that the market may now move in a range of $70,000 to $90,000 for weeks before any continuation. 

Willy Woo, a statistician and founder of the Bitcoin data platform Woobull, also shared some key resistance levels, and attributed Bitcoin’s recent performance to liquidity trends and Fibonacci extension levels. Woo suggested that consolidation is likely around the $88,000-$91,000 range, where short liquidations have ended. He also projected $102,000 as the next big resistance based on Fibonacci levels and potential new liquidation clusters. This makes $102K a critical price target if Bitcoin resumes its climb.