Bitcoin is back on the high road, and traders are betting that it will hit the $100K mark by year-end.
Fueled by Donald Trump’s surprising election win, which has crypto enthusiasts buzzing about a more “Bitcoin-friendly” White House, options traders are lining up bets, aiming to cash in big.
According to data from Deribit, the OG crypto rocketed to an all-time high, crossing $89,000 today, and it’s only driving the frenzy further as investors set their sights on the six-figure milestone.
Options bets soar with massive open interest
Trump, once the self-proclaimed enemy of crypto, flipped his stance this year, promising to build up a national Bitcoin reserve and kick out SEC Chair Gary Gensler, the man notorious for cracking down on the industry the hardest. This about-face has made him the unofficial hype man for Bitcoin’s biggest fans.
Nick Forster, who runs Derive, a decentralized finance protocol, describes it as a market in overdrive. “We’re seeing significant movements post-election,” Forster says, pointing to a specific trade: a massive $100,000 call option expiring on December 27, which has already jumped 30% in value.
Bitcoin options traders are putting serious money where their mouths are. By Monday morning, data out of London showed that 9,635 bitcoins, valued at around $780 million, were stacked into open interest, all hinged on Bitcoin reaching that elusive $100,000.
No other trade for that date comes close, and Deribit is giving it an 18.6% chance of paying out. Not exactly a sure thing, but certainly enough to keep the big players in the game.
But it’s not just the options market that’s heating up. Institutional interest is surging too. Over at CME Group, the big-league exchange for futures, open interest on Bitcoin futures jumped 12% since November 5. Ether futures have also seen a spike, climbing 29% to reach a record high. Everyone seems to be betting on the idea that Bitcoin is just getting started.
Yet, not everyone is charging in headfirst. Some caution is creeping in. Bitcoin’s funding rate, which is the premium traders pay to hold new long positions in perpetual futures, has been edging up, but it’s still far below 2024 highs, according to CryptoQuant data.
There’s skepticism about how long Trump’s “pro-Bitcoin” stance will hold once he takes office, given the pile of global issues waiting on his desk.
Riding the Greed wave — But are we due for a correction?
Right now, the market’s in overdrive, and it’s starting to look overheated. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index hit 80 on November 12, the day after Bitcoin smashed past $85,000. That’s an “extreme greed” reading. The last time it got that high was April 9, right before Bitcoin took an 18% tumble over the next few weeks.
With Bitcoin now nearing the $90,000 mark, fueled by its best weekly performance since the 2023 banking crisis, there’s a strong argument for taking things a little slower.
The leverage ratio across exchanges hit 0.217 on November 12, the highest it’s been since October last year. Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek isn’t thrilled about it. He went on X (formerly Twitter) to warn traders: “Leverage needs to be cleaned up before the attack on $100k. Manage your risk carefully.”
When leverage piles up like this, it can set off a massive liquidation cycle if things go south. So while everyone’s dreaming of that $100K, there’s a reminder hanging in the air—take it easy, or risk a brutal pullback.
Still, some analysts see Trump’s win as the perfect tailwind for Bitcoin to blow past the $100K target. They’re calling it a game-changer that could drive new economic changes in Bitcoin’s favor. With the election hype, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. are seeing record-breaking inflows.
For the week of November 6–11 alone, investments in these spot Bitcoin ETFs totaled a whopping $2.6 billion. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust was the top earner, pulling in over $2 billion on its own. Other players—Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund, Bitwise Bitcoin ETF, and ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF—added $668.3 million, $180 million, and $253.2 million, respectively.
Even the infamous Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which has had $20 billion in outflows over the years, finally saw positive inflows in the middle of this Bitcoin rush. According to Farside Investors, Grayscale’s Bitcoin ETFs—GBTC and BTC—together scooped up $219.8 million since November 6.
Ether ETFs, which have been a quieter part of the ecosystem, shattered their own records as well. November 11 saw $294.9 million pour into spot Ether ETFs in the U.S., their highest single-day intake since their launch back in July. For comparison, that’s nearly triple the $106.6 million they brought in on opening day.
El Salvador and Bhutan reaping Bitcoin gains
The price surge isn’t just a windfall for traders. El Salvador and Bhutan, both major Bitcoin holders, have seen their portfolios grow in value. El Salvador, which officially adopted Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021, watched its holdings jump by over $100 million in just one week.
According to Arkham Intelligence, the country’s Bitcoin stash was worth around $402 million as of November 5. By November 12, that number had shot up to $523 million. El Salvador holds roughly 5,900 bitcoins, and the country’s bet on the asset has turned a corner, with the portfolio value climbing steadily alongside Bitcoin’s price.
Bhutan, too, has a surprising amount of skin in the game. The kingdom’s Bitcoin dealings came to light earlier this year during bankruptcy proceedings involving firms like Celsius and BlockFi, where Bhutan’s commercial arm, Druk Holding and Investments (DHI), was listed as a creditor.
Bhutan officially confirmed its Bitcoin mining operations began in 2019, back when Bitcoin was trading around $5,000. Now, Arkham Intelligence estimates that Bhutan’s holdings amount to about $1.03 billion, which includes 12,568 Bitcoin, along with a small portfolio of other assets, like Ether, totaling around $2 million.
Source: https://www.cryptopolitan.com/bitcoin-options-heat-up-traders-bet-on-100k/