Has the crypto bullrun already started? Pay attention to these factors!

Following the latest upward movement of the crypto market, many are wondering if we have finally reached the parabolic phase of the bullrun.

In this article, we examine all the factors that can help us in evaluating the current outlook of the sector. Spoiler: we’re almost there!

All the details below.

Bitcoin marks new all-time highs: has the crypto market entered a bullrun?

On Wednesday, November 6, Bitcoin reached new all-time highs above $75,000, approaching the long-awaited bullrun of the crypto sector.

Propelled by the victory of Donald Trump in the American elections, the currency closed last week with a performance of +16.8%.

Today, it is being traded above 82,000 dollars, highlighting the positive moment for the bull market.

This milestone places Bitcoin also above the previous ATH calculated in real terms, that is, considering the inflation of the US dollar.

Usually, the bullrun of the crypto sector, that is, the last parabolic upward phase of the bullmarket, begins every 4 years after Bitcoin reaches new highs.

It is therefore easy to think that we have now reached that condition in which all existing tokens register staggering increases.

Usually, Bitcoin and the rest of the sector demonstrate their maximum potential about 200-250 days after the halving.

This is at least what happened in the past bull cycles of 2013, 2017, and 2020, where on each occasion new records were surpassed.

The top of the market occurred instead in a range between 365 and 500 days after the previous Bitcoin halving events

If history were to repeat itself this time as well, we might be really close to the crypto bullrun. The top is “scheduled” for Q2 2025.

Total crypto market capitalization close to ATH

Another factor to keep under observation to determine the start or not of the bullrun is the total capitalization of the crypto market.

This indicator shows the evolution of the overall market value, tracking Bitcoin, altcoin, and stablecoin. It is very useful as it highlights the flow of capital to and from the crypto world, encompassing all direct holdings in tokens.

At this moment, the chart of the “Crypto Total Marketcap” is at 2.73 trillion dollars, just 9% below the previous ATH of 2021 at 3 trillion dollars.

Indicatively, the phase in which the best speculative conditions are created occurs only AFTER the old maximum has been surpassed.

We might therefore have to wait a few more days before the definitive entry into bullrun. The wait still seems short.

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Regarding the duration of the bullrun, consider that from the moment the previous record was surpassed in 2020, 45 weeks passed before the next top.

In this juncture, the Total market cap has grown by 287%, reaching a value of 2.2 trillion dollars.

This time, however, the duration and performance could be lower: let’s keep in mind that in May 2021 there was a clear manipulation of the market by Elon Musk with the news of Bitcoin and Tesla.

If the “real” market top had occurred in May 2021 (and not in November), the bull run would have lasted only 19 weeks, with less growth.

The altcoins record double-digit percentage gains: crypto bullrun incoming!

Very curious to note how in the prelude of the bullrun, many altcoin crypto are already showing price movements typical of euphoria.

It is simply enough to observe the ranking of the top 10 coins on Coinmarketcap to realize what is happening.

Highly capitalized tokens record double-digit percentage performance in the last 7 days, showcasing their potential.

In particular, assets like SOL, DOGE, ADA, and SHIB have stood out for their bullish strength, with numbers ranging from +32% to +85%.

According to the data from Artemis Terminal, almost all categories of altcoins have performed better than Bitcoin: this is an important signal of an imminent bullrun.

Memecoin, Gen1 Smart Contract, DeFi, RWA, and Perp Dex are the ones that have performed better graphically.

Before reaching the FOMO of the bull run and the final phase of hype for altcoins, we should observe a decrease in Bitcoin Dominance.

At the moment, BTC’s dominance is at 59.30%. It is likely that from here on there will be another leg up above 60%, and then it will give way to the long-awaited altseason.

We keep an eye on the level of the EMA 50 on a weekly time frame. At its bearish break, we start the dance.

Bitcoin ETFs surpass the AUM of gold funds: institutional investors want crypto

The last factor to consider for evaluating the timing and impact of the bullrun crypto is the result of the ETF spot Bitcoin in their first year of listing.

Incredibly, these instruments have reached a very high appeal among institutional investors, highlighting their interest in the world of digital assets.

Consider that in just 1 year, the ETF Bitcoin have surpassed what the same instruments on gold have done in 20 years of trading.

In particular, recently the AUM (asset under management) of IBIT, that is, the Blackrock ETF on Bitcoin, has surpassed that of IAU, the same BlackRock fund with gold as the underlying asset.

This is a result beyond all expectations, which could now push new investors to jump on the bandwagon of the winners.

Thanks to the arrival of ETFs, which were absent in previous bull cycles, the bullrun could be better than expected both in terms of time and performance.

There are indeed those who speak of the supercycle theory and of targets above 200,000 dollars for Bitcoin: in any case, it’s better not to take anything for granted given the novelty of the ETFs.

It will be essential to periodically monitor the capital flows of these exchange-traded funds to assess the extent of the bullish market.