Path of least resistance may be skewed to the downside – OCBC

The Euro EUR continued to trade near recent lows, weighed by fresh concerns of political uncertainty in Germany (Chancellor Scholz dismissed Finance Minister and called for confidence vote on 15 Jan) and ongoing concerns of Trump win on European security and exports to US (due to potential tariffs). Pair was last seen at 1.0675 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Further downside towards 1.05 levels

“Daily momentum turned bearish while RSI fell. Support at 1.0670/80 levels (recent low) before 1.06 (2024 low). Breach below this support will open way for further downside towards 1.05 levels. Resistance at 1.0780, 1.0830/40 levels (21 DMA, 61.8% fibo retracement of 2024 low to high), 1.0870 (200 DMA).”

“But given that quite a handful of negative news maybe factored into the price of EUR in the near term, further downside may require additional catalyst. But looking out into forecast horizon, the path of least resistance may be skewed to the downside.”