A big October NFP miss solidifies November FOMC rate cut expectations – UOB Group

The latest US Employment Situation report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) last Friday (1 November) turned in a much weaker jobs creation and an unchanged unemployment rate, as weather events (Hurricanes Helene and Milton) and strike activity in manufacturing peppered the US labor market outlook, UOB Group’s Senior Economist Alvin Liew notes.

FOMC rate cut expectations get solidified

“The US reported a much weaker jobs creation at just 12,000 (weakest since December 2020) amidst an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.1%, as weather events (Hurricanes Helene and Milton) and strike activity in manufacturing peppered the US labor market outlook. Wage growth accelerated above forecast to 0.4% m/m, 4.0% y/y in October, meaning wagepush inflation is still a concern.”

“Job creation in October was far from being broad-based compared to the previous months, as private sector hiring hit a snag in October recording a loss of -28,000, the first negative print since December 2020 (-236,000) while government hiring stayed healthy and kept the headline in the black. Job losses were recorded in manufacturing, leisure & hospitality, professional services, retail trade, warehousing & transportation, and utilities.”

“Post-October jobs report, market pricing for the Fed to cut by 25-bps in the November FOMC is close to certainty (98.9%), according to the CME FedWatch tool, and also in line with our and broad market projections.”