Remains weak on yield spreads – Scotiabank

Near-term prospects for the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are little changed, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

CAD little changed

“Wide yield/swap spreads are the major drag on the CAD at the moment. The CAD has been pummeled by the prospect of more BoC easing ahead while the Fed drags its feet over lowering rates.”

“Swaps spreads have narrowed a fraction on the day so far, which may help the CAD steady, but the CAD is unlikely to pick up much ground ahead of the US presidential vote. The election outcome risks accentuating pressure on the CAD if a Trump win boosts inflation worries in the US. USDCAD’s estimated fair value this morning is little changed at 1.3931.”

“The bull trend in the USD remains very, very stretched in technical terms. Intraday price action suggests some stabilization in the USD so far, with spot’s trading range holding within yesterday’s. An inside range day (if confirmed through the close) would signal a pause at least in the USD’s rise ahead of major resistance at 1.3945/50. Support intraday is 1.3895 and 1.3860.”