AUD/JPY edges lower to near 100.50, upside potential seems possible due to hawkish RBA

• AUD/JPY loses ground after the release of lower-than-expected Australia’s third-quarter inflation data.
• The monthly Australian CPI rose by 2.1% YoY in September, against the expected 2.3% and previous 2.7% readings.
• The Japanese Yen may struggle due to increased uncertainty surrounding the BoJ rate-hike intentions, following LDP coalition loss.

AUD/JPY extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around 100.50 during the early European hours on Wednesday. This downside of the AUD/JPY cross is attributed to the weaker Australian Dollar (AUD) following lower-than-expected Australia’s third-quarter Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose just 0.2% quarter-over-quarter in the third quarter, down from 1.0% in the previous quarter and slightly below the anticipated 0.3%. The monthly CPI rose by 2.1% year-over-year in September, coming in below market expectations of 2.3% and down from August’s reading of 2.7%.

However, the downside of the AUD could be restrained due to the hawkish sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) regarding its policy outlook. The Reserve Bank of Australia signaled that the current cash rate of 4.35% is sufficiently restrictive to guide inflation back to the target range of 2%-3% while continuing to support employment. As a result, a rate cut in November appears unlikely.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) may encounter pressure due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) rate-hike intentions, especially after the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) coalition lost its parliamentary majority in Sunday’s election.

Japan’s Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa remarked on Tuesday that a weaker Yen could drive up prices via higher import costs, potentially reducing real household income and dampening private consumption if wage growth does not keep pace.

The Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision, scheduled for Thursday, remains a focal point, with nearly 86% of economists surveyed by Reuters anticipating that the central bank will hold rates steady at its October meeting.