A sell-out crowd at Madison Square Garden marked a successful Trump rally which has helped the presidential hopeful to build a 66.7% to 34.4% lead over Democrat Harris according to leading prediction market Polymarket. If this translates into a Trump victory on 5 November, Bitcoin could be expected to surge strongly into the end of this year.
Three key States will decide U.S. presidential election
A two thirds majority for Donald Trump over Kamala Harris, with only just over a week to go before election day, might suggest a shoe-in for Trump for a second term in office. However, this is how Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market reads it, while traditional polling companies have the race practically neck and neck.
The strong swell of pro-Trump predictions on Polymarket could also be taken into question if one were to read the overall U.S. mainstream press take on the MSG rally. Accusations of ‘racism’ were levelled at the republicans, adding to the fire of what has become an increasingly bitter campaign fight.
That said, expert analysis on the outcome of this presidential election is in agreement that the seven swing States will decide this race. In particular, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina are acknowledged to be key. If Trump wins these, he wins the election. Polymarket has him well ahead in all three, as well as in all the other swing States.
Institutions about to increase share of Bitcoin ETFs?
It’s for this reason that Bitcoin could be on the brink of a huge run into the end of this year, post election. Another massive positive for Bitcoin are the continual large flows into the U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs. A big inflow on Friday amounted to a further 5.88K $BTC ($401.2M) being taken from the market.
To add to the bullishness of all this buying, it is estimated that around 80% of it is from retail investors. It can only be imagined how much more these funds can increase if, and when, institutional buying really starts to ramp up.
Bullish short-term $BTC price action
Source: TradingView
The short-term time frame for the $BTC price (BTC/USD) is showing a wealth of possibilities. The price is up against the 0.786 Fibonacci, the last of the levels for this current move. Also, a small W pattern has formed, and the price has just confirmed the neckline breakout.
Above the price are the crucial horizontal resistances. First at $69,000, which takes its importance from being the top of the previous bull market, and then the $70,000 resistance, which marks the last local high. Both will need to be breached for a continuation of this uptrend.
Textbook bull flag breakout
Source: TradingView
The weekly chart shows just how perfect things are for $BTC currently. The breakout from the 7-month long bull flag came from a good, strong candle body. The retest of the breakout has occurred, and the ensuing candle wick is also a big sign of bullish buying.
The next two horizontal resistances are big, as explained earlier, but once through these, the $BTC price has its path clear to surge on and claim a new all-time high.
At the bottom of the chart, the Relative Strength Index is maintaining above the 50.00 level and is now just starting to angle upwards. All is in place for a coming explosion. If Trump wins those three swing States, this explosion might only be a matter of just over a week away.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
Source: https://cryptodaily.co.uk/2024/10/bitcoin-btc-on-brink-of-huge-run-as-trump-campaign-gathers-momentum