‘This is a very bullish setup for Bitcoin’

Matthew Sigel, the head of digital assets at VanEck, says the current market setup is very bullish for Bitcoin, the world’s flagship digital asset.

In an interview with CNBC’s Squawk Box on Oct. 28, Sigel pointed to the upcoming U.S. election as likely a major for Bitcoin (BTC) price.

The VanEck digital assets chief’s comments come as BTC climbed back above $68,000, with the top crypto by market cap weathering recent downside pressure. Whether bulls will reclaim the psychological $70,000 level ahead of the November 5, 2024, election remains to be seen.

At its current level of $68,800, Bitcoin’s price is up more than 55% year-to-date and over 100% in the past year. Compared to the previous U.S. election, Sigel sees BTC displaying similar patterns to those leading into the 2020 vote.

“This is a very bullish setup for Bitcoin into the election. We saw the exact same pattern in 2020 where Bitcoin lagged with low volatility and then once a winner was announced, we had a high vol rally as new buyers came into this market,” Sigel noted.

Regarding Bitcoin’s recent surge and its correlation with betting odds for a Donald Trump win, Sigel told Squawk Box that this does appear to be the case.

Mainly, it’s down to Trump being the more pro-crypto candidate compared to Kamala Harris. Polymarket odds have for instance shifted massively from Harris to Trump, the latter currently at 66%.

However, the VanEck executive sees Bitcoin’s most important correlation being negative with the U.S. dollar and positive correlation with money supply growth, or M2. The Federal Reserve’s pivot and seller exhaustion – mainly after the dumping by the German government – are pointers to money growth reacceleration.

Sigel also added that rating agency Moody’s is set to downgrade the U.S. sovereign debt, a scenario that could add to the bullish setup for BTC.