Robinhood enters U.S. presidential prediction market

Robinhood Derivatives LLC announced a U.S. presidential election trading contract, allowing some users to speculate on the Nov. 5 general election.

Robinhood stated that eligible U.S. customers can trade two contracts in the “who will win the 2024 presidential election” market. Contracts for Donald Trump and Kamala Harris went live on Oct. 28, according to a statement from the California-based trading firm.

We believe event contracts give people a tool to engage in real-time decision-making, unlocking a new asset class that democratizes access to events as they unfold.

Robinhood statement

Robinhood did not disclose any options for crypto deposits or user account funding, suggesting trades would be financed and settled in fiat.

This year, event contracts based on real-world events and crypto outcomes have seen billions in trading volume on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. However, presidential prediction and electoral betting markets aren’t a new phenomenon in U.S. election cycles. New York newspapers printed daily odds as far back as the late 19th and early 20th centuries.

Projects like Polygon-powered Polymarket have embraced America’s long history of betting by incorporating blockchain technology. The on-chain platform, founded by Shayne Coplan, boasts over $2.3 billion on its presidential event contracts.  Polymarket is unavailable to U.S. users and recently reiterated this policy, but the protocol dominated the prediction sector with a 99% market share.

Kalshi, like Robinhood, caters to U.S. customers as a regulated exchange. The Manhattan firm may soon include crypto deposits, adding to its other digital asset-linked markets. Otherwise, Kalshi also settles wagers in fiat.

Prediction markets remain a major trend in 2024, as global users turn to alternative data sources and social sentiment indicators. According to CoinGecko, the event outcome sector has soared over 500% in the past 12 months, attracting new institutional participants like Wintermute.