Are the Odds of Winning Still at 80%?

Ripple Labs has officially filed a notice outlining the specific aspects of its case that it intends to appeal following a significant ruling against it. Attorney Jeremy Hogan shared details on X, explaining the critical issues at stake in this appeal, which could have far-reaching implications for Ripple and the broader cryptocurrency market.

What is an Investment Contract?

Ripple is questioning whether an “investment contract” needs to be a formal legal contract. They believe this issue is vital for the crypto sector. Even if they win this argument, it won’t change the $105 million judgment against them, but it could weaken the SEC’s enforcement power over other cryptocurrencies.

Selling XRP as an Investment Contract

Ripple is also challenging whether it actually sold XRP as an “investment contract.” This allows them to revisit the Howey test, a legal standard that helps define what counts as an investment contract. If they succeed, it could change how similar sales are regulated.

Fair Notice Defense

Ripple is reviving its “Fair Notice Defense,” arguing that the SEC did not provide clear guidelines. They contend that they shouldn’t be punished for operating under vague rules. A win here could help protect other crypto companies facing similar issues.

Clarity of the Injunction

Ripple is questioning the injunction that tells them to “follow the law.” They argue that this instruction is too vague and creates uncertainty for their business. By appealing this point, Ripple aims to have clearer guidelines to follow.

Chances of Winning?

In response to a user’s query about Ripple’s chances of success in the appeal, Hogan expressed optimism, estimating an 80% probability that Ripple could emerge from the appeal in a stronger position. 

Hogan wrote, “Sometimes “win” vs. “lose” in these cases is not a clear line but yes, I think there’s an 80% chance Ripple comes away from the appeal in a better position than now.”