EUR undertone remains weak – Scotiabank

The Euro (EUR) is nudging back over the 1.08 line as trading gets going in North America, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

EUR regains 1.08 handle despite mixed PMI data

“October PMI data were mixed—French data were weaker than September and came in below expectations. German data were the opposite which produced on expectations or slightly better than forecast data for the preliminary Eurozone overall. The broader economic picture remains soft which will encourage expectations of more ECB easing ahead—but with 25bps clips of cuts rather than 50bps.”

“Spot’s move back above 1.08, albeit barely so, gives the EUR a mildly positive look as it suggests the support zone in the upper 1.0780/00 range noted earlier this week is having some effect on price (despite a brief push to the 60s yesterday). The EUR undertone remains weak, however, and spot has a lot of work to do to improve meaningfully.”

“EUR/USD remains deeply oversold, which bolsters the potential for a stabilization in spot, or even a mild rebound. Spot will need to break above 1.0875 to show any real signs of (short-term) technical strength.”