AUD/USD recovers further from over two-month low, climbs above mid-0.6600s on softer USD

AUD/USD attracts buyers on Thursday amid a modest USD pullback from a three-month high.
Retreating US bond yields, along with stable risk sentiment, prompts some USD profit-taking.
Bets for smaller Fed rate cuts and the US political uncertainty could limit deeper USD losses.

The AUD/USD pair builds on its steady intraday ascent through the first half of the European session on Thursday and recovers further from its lowest level since August 16, around the 0.6615-0.6610 region touched the previous day. The momentum lifts spot prices beyond the mid-0.6600s in the last hour and is sponsored by a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick.

The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, retreats from a nearly three-month top amid a corrective decline in the US Treasury bond yields. Furthermore, a stable performance around the equity markets prompts profit-taking around the safe-haven buck and benefits the risk-sensitive Aussie. That said, a combination of factors should limit any meaningful USD downfall and keep a lid on the AUD/USD pair.

The markets have fully priced out the possibility of a more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) as the recent US macro data suggested that the economy remains on strong footing. This, along with concerns that the spending plans of both Vice President Kamala Harris and the Republican nominee Donald Trump will further increase the deficit, should continue to act as a tailwind for the US bond yields and revive the USD demand.

This, in turn, makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the AUD/USD pair’s recent sharp retracement slide from the 0.6940-0.6945 region, or the highest level since February 2023 touched last month has run its course. From a technical perspective, the overnight failure to find acceptance below the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) warrants some caution before placing fresh bearish bets.

Market participants now look forward to the release of the flash US PMI prints for the month of October. Apart from this, the US bond yields and the broader risk sentiment will influence the USD price dynamics, which, in turn, should produce short-term trading opportunities around the AUD/USD pair.

Economic Indicator

S&P Global Composite PMI

The S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging US private-business activity in the manufacturing and services sector. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD.