AUD/JPY moves above 101.50 due to growing doubts over BoJ policy outlook

• AUD/JPY continues to rise amid Japan’s political instability, which casts uncertainty over the Bank of Japan’s policy direction.
• Recent polls show that Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party-led coalition may lose its majority in Parliament.
• The Australian Dollar gained ground due to the rising hawkish mood surrounding the RBA.

AUD/JPY extends its gains for the third consecutive day, trading near 101.60 during European hours on Wednesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) is under heavy selling pressure due to growing concerns over political instability, which further clouds the outlook for the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy.

In Japan, recent polls indicate the ruling coalition led by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) may lose its majority in the general election this weekend, which could jeopardize Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s position or push the party to seek an additional coalition partner to remain in power, per Reuters.

In its October World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, the IMF downgraded Japan’s economic growth forecast to 0.3% for this year, down from 1.7% in 2023. The projection was revised downward by 0.4% compared to the July outlook. Looking ahead, the IMF expects the economy to grow by 1.1% in 2025, driven by stronger private consumption as real wage growth picks up.

Furthermore, traders will likely observe the speech of the Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda at the IMF-hosted “Governors Talk” session scheduled later in the North American session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) receives support as upbeat employment data has strengthened the hawkish sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Further support for the Aussie Dollar came from China’s recent rate cuts, as China remains Australia’s largest trading partner.

On Monday, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser expressed some surprise at the robust employment growth. He pointed out that the labor participation rate is notably high and clarified that while the RBA relies on data for its decisions, it is not overly fixated on it.