Charts suggest a pause at least in drop – Scotiabank

The Euro (EUR) has recovered somewhat from the low reached in the wake of yesterday’s ECB rate cut. But EZ/US spreads remain wide, with markets pricing in more easing from the ECB before year end (the 2Y spread has dropped to –187bps, the widest since early July) , Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

EUR steadies after ECB rate cut

“ECB Governor Villeroy commented earlier that the ECB should continue to ease policy ‘as appropriate’ but would maintain ‘total optionality’ at forthcoming meetings.”

“Spot is consolidating the October run lower that has largely delivered on the bearish promise of the break under 1.10 (recall that the break under 1.10 support at the start of the month triggered the 1.12 double top pattern which targeted a drop to the 1.08 area).”

“The EUR sell-off looks stretched and may see a little more relief in the short run if spot can push above minor trend resistance at 1.0850 in the next day or so. Firmer resistance sits at 1.0900/10. Support is 1.0800.”