3Q24 GDP in line with expectations – UOB Group

China’s 3Q24 GDP growth was largely in line with consensus expectations at 4.6% y/y, 0.9% q/q sa (Bloomberg’s est: 4.5% y/y, 1.1% q/q; UOB est: 4.7% y/y, 1.1% q/q). This marked a further slowdown from 4.7% y/y in 2Q24 but the momentum has picked up from the downwardly revised 0.5% q/q last quarter, UOB Group’s economist Ho Woei Chen notes.

3Q24 GDP growth moderation largely in line with consensus

“China’s 3Q24 GDP growth was largely in line with consensus expectations and clocked a growth of 4.8% YTD. Nominal GDP growth has remained below the real GDP growth rate, indicating that deflationary pressure has yet to abate which was also evident in September CPI and PPI.”

“September data was largely positive with an acceleration in momentum for industrial production, retail sales and urban fixed asset investment while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell. However, sustained pace of declines in property prices and sales values put a dampener on the recovery outlook.”

“We maintain our growth forecast for China at 4.9% this year and 4.6% in 2025. Anticipation is building around the meeting of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (NPC) later this month to announce the details of the fiscal stimulus following the approval process. This will have an impact on the China’s growth outlook, especially for next year.”