Bitcoin Turns Bearish in ‘Uptober’—Is Another 15% Plunge Waiting for the BTC Price Rally?

The recent CPI data did not impact Bitcoin on a larger side, as the price levels remained stuck within the same range. Some buyers jumped in to prevent excessive price drain but failed to close the day’s trade on a bullish note. However, the buying pressure appears to have mounted to some extent, which may keep up the bullish hopes for the rest of the month. Does this suggest a drop in the bearish strength?

Well, the bears appear to remain passive for a while, allowing the bulls to accumulate some momentum. The BTC price is trading within a halving period and has completed nearly 285 in consolidation after the event. Historically, the price consolidates for 300 days and triggers a massive bull run. Comparing the price trend to that of the trend after the 2020 halving, it suggests only a few days are remaining for the token to initiate a strong rise. 

The CEO of CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, said the bull markets should begin within the next 14 days, referring to the price trends of 2020 to 2024. He says that if the rally failed to trigger within the stipulated time, then the BTC price may mark the longest sideways in a halving year in history. In other words, the price may enter the extended consolidation phase, probably until the end of the year. 

However, price diss-correlation is pretty high throughout the whole year and hence a divergence from the historical pattern is quite possible. In 2016, the Bitcoin bull markets had outperformed after the 2016 halving mush before the end of the consolidation phase. However, the market participants seem to be uncertain at the moment, as they could be waiting for the US elections, post to which a decent bull run may begin.