Economy is solid, expect 2% inflation in 2025

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of New York President John Williams riffed on his economic outlook on Thursday after a market-vexing Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation print that saw YoY CPI inflation pressures on consumers tick higher in the aggregate. Weekly US Initial Jobless Claims also rose to the fastest pace of newly unemployed benefits seekers since May of 2023.

Key highlights

Job market unlikely to be inflation driver going forward.

I see unemployment at 4.25% this year and around that in 2025.

I see 2024 GDP between 2.25-2.5%, 2.25% average over next two years.

I expect inflation to wane to 2.25% this year, close to 2% in 2025.

The economy is solid, labor market in a good place.

Economic activity is largely balanced across the economy.

Latest data has been consistent with recent trends.