Inflation expected to rise again in latter part of this year

The accounts of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) September policy meeting showed on Thursday that inflation in the Eurozone is expected to rise again in the latter part of this year, per Reuters.

Key takeaways

“Inflation then expected to decline towards the target over the second half of next year.”

“Recent negative surprises in PMI manufacturing output indicated potential headwinds to the near-term outlook.”

“Therefore, needed to be carefully monitored whether inflation would settle sustainably at the target in a timely manner.”

“The risk of delays in reaching the ECB’s target was seen to warrant some caution to avoid dialing back policy restriction prematurely.”

“Foreign demand was showing signs of weakness, with falling export orders and PMIs.”

“Core inflation and services inflation might be stickier and not decline as much as currently expected.”

“Since the cut-off for the projections, Eurostat had revised data for the latest quarters.”

“It was generally considered that a recession in the euro area remained unlikely.”

“It would sometimes be appropriate to ignore volatility in oil prices.”

“Too early to declare victory.”

“Disinflationary process was on track.”

“Baseline path to 2% depended critically on lower wage growth as well as on an acceleration of productivity growth.”

“Inflation had recently been declining somewhat faster than expected.”

Market reaction

This publication failed to trigger a noticeable reaction in EUR/USD. At the time of press, the pair was trading marginally lower on the day at around 1.0930.