- The US Dollar trades overall in the green against the G10 basket of currencies
- Traders are sending US Treasury rates higher with US CPI data set to be issued on Thursday.
- The US Dollar Index trades above 102.50 and flirts with a break above 103.00.
The US Dollar (USD) rallies again this week, with traders sending US Treasury rates higher ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September. Higher US rates make the US Dollar a favored carry currency again, with several traders and speculators more than happy to park their money under the Greenback and get some yield return in the process. It reveals part of the conviction among traders that the US CPI report might see the disinflationary process from recent months stall or even turn around and head back into an increase in inflation.
The economic calendar is thus picking up steam, with the heavy-weight US CPI release on Thursday. Add the weekly Jobless Claims, and markets are bound to have some volatility. The release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes of the September meeting on Wednesday showed that a large majority of the Federal Reserve (Fed) voters were in favor of a bigger 50 basis points (bps) rate cut, while a smaller amount voted in favor of a more gradual approach.
Daily digest market movers: Here comes the CPI data
- US Treasury rates are rallying and are outpacing other sovereign rates, which means that rate differentials are widening again between the US and several other countries. This supports a stronger US Dollar across the board.
- At 12:30 GMT, a bulk load of data points is set to be released:
- US Consumer Price Index data for September:
- Monthly core inflation is expected to grow by 0.2%, compared with 0.3% in August.
- In line with the core reading, monthly headline inflation is expected to increase by 0.1% from 0.2% in August.
- Yearly core inflation is expected to remain steady at 3.2%, while headline inflation should decline to 2.3% from 2.5% in August.
- Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 4 are expected to jump to 230,000 compared with 225,000 the prior week.
- US Consumer Price Index data for September:
- Near 13:15 GMT, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook delivers a speech about entrepreneurship and innovation at the Women for Women Summit organized by the College of Charleston School of Business in Charleston, South Carolina. Cook is considered rather dovish in terms of policy stance.
- At 15:00 GMT, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams delivers keynote remarks at an event organized by Binghamton University in New York. Williams is considered neutral in terms of policy stance.
- There is some geographical dislocation in the equity markets, with Asia closing the day in a positive mode, even for Chinese indices. European equities look sluggish and are in the red, while US equity futures are subdued.
- The CME Fedwatch Tool shows an 80.1% chance of a 25 bps interest rate cut at the next Fed meeting on November 7, while 19.9% is pricing in no rate cut. Chances for a 50 bps rate cut have been fully priced out now.
- The US 10-year benchmark rate trades at 4.08%, the highest level since early August.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Here comes the pop?
The US Dollar Index (DXY) knows no limits and rallies higher again on Thursday ahead of the US CPI release. With the US rates rallying, it should become clear that markets are starting to put less faith in the Fed being in a rate-cut cycle. The elevated levels and probabilities of no more bigger rate cuts this year could mean a rallying Greenback going into the US elections.
The psychological 103.00 is the first level to tackle on the upside. Further up, the chart identifies 103.18 as the very final resistance level for this week. Once above there, a very choppy area emerges, with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 103.28, the 200-day SMA at 103.77, and the pivotal 103.99-104.00 levels in play.
On the downside, the 55-day SMA at 101.94 is the first line of defence, backed by the 102.00 round level and the pivotal 101.90 as support to catch any bearish pressure and trigger a bounce. If that level does not work out, 100.62 also acts as support. Further down, a test of the year-to-date low of 100.16 should take place before more downside. Finally, and that means giving up the big 100.00 level, the July 14, 2023, low at 99.58 comes into play.
US Dollar Index: Daily Chart
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-picks-up-steam-and-rallies-higher-ahead-of-us-cpi-data-202410101109