Donald Trump strengthens lead over Kamala Harris in prediction markets

Not long after former United States President and current Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump reestablished his domination in prediction markets for winning the November elections against his Democratic opponent, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, his lead grew further.

Indeed, the odds of Trump winning the elections have increased to 50.8%, whereas Harris’s have declined to 48.4%, which means that the prediction markets’ bet at Trump’s victory has increased by 0.2% while Harris’s have declined by 0.2% in the last hour alone, as per the latest Polymarket data on October 7.

Trump vs. Harris in prediction markets

As it happens, the cryptocurrency-based predictions platform taking bets in the USDC stablecoin presently suggests Trump’s growing advantage and has reflected the sentiment around key developments that could impact the election outcome, including the failed assassination attempt against him in July.

Specifically, after the Pennsylvania rally shooting, the former president’s popularity in Polymarket soared from 60% to 70% in a single day following the stable growth up until that moment, although his domination later dropped to 46% as Harris replaced the incumbent U.S. President Joe Biden in the race.

A few weeks later, Trump managed to regain popularity against his Democratic rival, suggesting a 52% chance of victory as opposed to Harris’s 47%. However, by mid-September, Harris reduced Trump’s domination and evened the odds, with both candidates demonstrating an equal 49% chance of winning.

Having said that, the Republican presidential hopeful more recently returned to the lead, bringing his odds back up to 50%, whereas the Vice President’s chance of winning remained at 49% in the prediction markets, as Finbold reported on October 4.

Prediction markets manipulation attempts

Meanwhile, it appears that there have been some unsuccessful attempts to manipulate the outcome of derivative bets between the two candidates on the Polymarket platform just days after Trump regained popularity in early September, as X investigator Dumpster DAO pointed out.

As a reminder, the investigator explained that the manipulation attempt entailed deploying over $9 million worth of USDC to buy the ‘yes’ shares for Harris and ‘no’ shares for Trump, seeking to artificially boost the Vice President’s odds of winning and profit from it.

Ultimately, the prediction markets can offer some idea of the presidential candidates’ popularity and show the complexities of the upcoming elections, with both sides having nearly equal chances at winning without specific events to tip the scales, as well as emphasizing the importance of doing one’s own research when making any substantial bets.