First signs of calm but still too early to fade the sell-off – ING

Yesterday’s trading brought the first signs of calm in the CEE region. However, the EM space still remains under pressure and therefore it is too early to turn more optimistic on the region. Today the main focus will of course be on US data and the geopolitical situation and we prefer to wait for Monday to see developments over the weekend in the Middle East. However, as we’ve mentioned before, CEE currency fundamentals support a quick recovery if the situation calms down, ING’s FX strategist Frantisek Taborsky notes.

EM space still remains under pressure

“The Polish zloty should be the most defensive currency in the region amid the risk-off sentiment and should also have the easiest path to start appreciating again. Although we believe nothing changes that, yesterday’s National Bank of Poland press conference altered the picture slightly. The governor surprised with another dovish move and confirmed that the first half of next year is the time for rate cuts.”

“Although we see current market pricing as still very dovish, given the spike in rates in recent days it has not been hard for the market to price back some rate cuts. However, the result has been a deterioration in rate differentials while the rest of CEE remains at record highs. At the same time, EUR/CZK yesterday was the first pair within the CEE3 to find some ground, but EUR/HUF also bounced off 402 and EUR/PLN rejected 4.310.”

“Overall though, we are hardly looking for confirmation that the situation has calmed down and today may reveal more as to the right time to turn more positive.”