Brandt Warns Recent Rally Didn’t Break Bearish Structure

Veteran trader Peter Brandt recently highlighted that the latest Bitcoin rally failed to reverse the longer-term bearish structure of lower highs and lower lows.

Despite the brief surge, Brandt points out that Bitcoin still hasn’t broken the levels necessary to confirm a trend reversal. According to him, a major bullish shift will only occur if Bitcoin can close above $71,000 and establish a new all-time high.

The accompanying chart reveals that BTC has been in a consistent downtrend for over seven months. This pattern features lower highs and lower lows—a signal of ongoing bearish sentiment. 

Bitcoin Resistance Levels to Watch

Brandt identifies two major resistance levels on the weekly chart that Bitcoin price has been unable to surpass. The first is around $70,602, while the second, a higher resistance, sits at $73,808, the current all-time high.

These levels have acted as major barriers to upward momentum, halting Bitcoin’s advance on multiple occasions. Without breaking through these levels, the market is likely to continue in its consolidation phase.

Brandt emphasized that while the recent rally gave some hope, it did not disturb the sequence of lower highs that have defined Bitcoin’s price action for months. 

He argues that a true reversal in momentum would only occur if Bitcoin breaks past $71,000 and confirms an ATH. The market veteran suggests that anything short of that is simply another move within the prevailing bearish framework.

BTC MAs Suggest Caution

Further, the 8-week simple moving average (SMA), currently around $60,526, serves as support. Bitcoin’s price has been hovering near this moving average, indicating a lack of clear direction. 

Meanwhile, volatility, as measured by the Average True Range (ATR), remains moderate. The ATR value of 5,756 indicates that while the market is still capable of significant moves, it hasn’t reached extreme levels of volatility yet. 

Broader Market Outlook

Following Brandt’s analysis, charting expert Willy Woo agreed that the medium-term structure of Bitcoin remains bearish. However, Woo expressed optimism that the market is gradually shifting from neutral to bullish. 

He added that while Bitcoin may eventually reach a new all-time high, it would likely take time. Woo predicted a cooling-off period over the next one to three weeks before the next significant bullish attempt. 

Structure mid term is bearish moving to neutral and trying to get bullish. ATH will take time.

Short term structure suggests 1-3 wks stand down to cool off before the next bullish attempt.

I don’t think we get Uptober, sideways Oct, and Nov-Dec for laser eye parties.

Long term…

— Willy Woo (@woonomic) October 2, 2024

He dismissed the idea of a strong rally in October, suggesting instead that the market would likely move sideways before experiencing a stronger uptrend toward the end of the year.

In response, Brandt remarked that when enough people adopt the “laser eyes” trend—a meme signifying bullish sentiment in the crypto community—it often signals bearish market tendencies.

Interestingly, veteran analyst Benjamin Cowen recently confirmed in a separate analysis that Bitcoin would also record observable declines this month, contrary to the “up only” sentiments across the community. This aligns with Woo’s disclosure and leans in the direction of Brandt’s report.

Just to offer a different view to consider other than the “up only” view mostly shared on this platform, in 2019, #BTC rallied for 2 weeks after the 1st rate cut, then dropped to the 100W SMA 2 months later, which would correspond to mid-November. pic.twitter.com/ogicF89JrM

— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) October 2, 2024

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has witnessed three consecutive days of declines following the 2-month peak of $66,508 on Sept. 28. BTC briefly retested the $60K region yesterday before rebounding to trade for $61,395 at press time.