Tesla (TSLA) delivery predictions rise for this quarter

After ending 2023 on a high note, Tesla started 2024 with a rocky first quarter. 

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives described it as a “nightmare” after the company delivered just 386,810 vehicles—well below Wall Street’s expectations. But things are looking up as prediction markets have begun forecasting stronger delivery numbers for Tesla in the current quarter.

Tesla is now expected to deliver 467,000 vehicles, a notable increase from the 450,000 projected just weeks ago, according to prediction market platform, Kalshi.

If Tesla meets the 467,000 vehicle target, it will be a strong comeback from Q2 2024, when it delivered 443,000 cars—a 4.8% decline compared to the same quarter in 2023. 

Achieving this quarter’s forecast would even surpass Tesla’s Q2 2023 numbers, where it delivered approximately 466,000 vehicles. This level of performance could be crucial for Tesla to end the year on a strong note, especially given the competitive landscape of the electric vehicle market.

Analysts share thoughts on Tesla deliveries

Analysts are also weighing in with their predictions. FactSet estimates that Tesla will deliver 461,000 vehicles for the third quarter of 2024, representing a 6% year-over-year growth. 

Barclays has an even more optimistic view, forecasting 470,000 deliveries—a jump of 8% year-over-year. 

This increased optimism has been reflected in Tesla’s stock price, which has surged by over 24% in the past month, currently trading at $261.63 and climbing to $262.28 in pre-market trading. 

Much of this boost in both stock price and delivery expectations can be attributed to Tesla’s strong sales performance in China. In August alone, Tesla sold 86,697 vehicles domestically—its highest for the year—setting the stage for a robust third quarter. 

As sales continue to rise in China, investors and market watchers are increasingly confident in Tesla’s ability to exceed delivery forecasts, driving both stock value and market optimism.