Polymarket Bets Say Ethereum Won’t Hit New High Until 2025

Ethereum, despite a strong price rally, has entered a phase of consolidation as the US SEC delays its decision on Ethereum-based ETF options, while Golem has addressed community concerns following the transfer of over 135,000 ETH to centralized exchanges. 

Ethereum Price Consolidation Amid SEC’s ETF Decision Delay and Polymarket’s Bearish Outlook

Ethereum (ETH) has experienced a notable 15% price rally over the last two weeks, driven by renewed market interest and positive momentum. Despite this surge, the cryptocurrency has entered a consolidation phase, with its price fluctuating between $2,700 and $2,600 this week. 

The largest altcoin by market capitalization holds a commanding $316 billion valuation. However, ETH’s price action has recently plateaued, and traders are closely watching the upcoming regulatory decisions surrounding Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States. This week, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delayed its decision on options trading for spot Ethereum ETFs, casting uncertainty on ETH’s near-term trajectory.

On Sept. 24, the SEC announced a delay in its decision on whether to approve options trading for Ethereum ETFs, extending the review period until Nov. 10-11. This postponement, which came just days before an anticipated announcement by Sept. 26-27, has left investors in limbo regarding the regulatory approval of Ethereum-based ETFs.

The SEC cited the need for further review under Section 19(b)(2) of the Securities Exchange Act, which allows the regulatory body to extend its decision-making process when faced with market and regulatory risks. This cautious approach follows the SEC’s recent approval of options trading for the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) on Nasdaq, which took eight months of review.

The delay has fueled concerns that the SEC may continue its conservative approach when dealing with crypto products, particularly those related to Ethereum. Although the approval of the Bitcoin ETF by BlackRock’s iShares is seen as a positive development for the crypto market, the delay for Ethereum-based ETFs shows that the SEC still has ongoing concerns about market manipulation and the need for stronger regulatory frameworks.

The SEC’s delay has also impacted market sentiment regarding Ethereum’s long-term price potential. Polymarket, one of the world’s largest prediction markets, has seen a significant shift in betting odds for Ethereum reaching a new all-time high (ATH) in 2024. The current odds suggest an 85% probability that Ethereum will miss out on achieving a new ATH next year, up from 71% just a week ago.

Polymarket’s data shows that only 14% of participants are betting on Ethereum hitting a new ATH, while less than 1% hold hopes for a meteoric rise within the next five days. This suggests growing bearishness among traders and speculators, especially in light of the regulatory uncertainties and potential macroeconomic headwinds that could affect the broader crypto market.

Interestingly, despite the low probability of a new ATH in the near term, traders who are still betting on this outcome have placed high-value bets. Those holding out for an ATH in the third quarter of 2024 collectively wagered $1.23 million, while the 85% who expect no new ATH pooled together a slightly lower collective bet of $1.07 million.

Ether’s Price Struggles Between $2,600 and $2,700

Amid this mixed sentiment, Ethereum’s price action has remained subdued in recent days. After hitting a local high of $2,702 earlier this week, ETH has been trading sideways, oscillating within a narrow range of $2,600 to $2,700. This price stagnation suggests that the market may be in a period of distribution, where buyers and sellers are closely balanced.

Traders are watching for a potential correction towards the $2,500 level, where liquidity could be drawn, providing opportunities for buyers to re-enter the market at lower prices. The current market environment suggests that Ethereum may continue to experience consolidation in the short term as traders lock in profits and await further catalysts.

If the SEC continues to delay its decision on Ethereum ETFs, it could weigh on market sentiment and limit ETH’s upside potential. Conversely, a favorable regulatory outcome could reignite interest in the altcoin, potentially setting the stage for a renewed rally.

Additionally, macroeconomic factors, such as inflation data and central bank policies, will play a role in shaping the broader market landscape. Should risk-off sentiment prevail, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies could face increased volatility.

For now, Ethereum remains in a holding pattern, with traders waiting for clearer signals from both the regulatory front and the broader market. Whether ETH will be able to break out of its current range or face further downward pressure will depend on how these developments unfold in the coming weeks.

The Golem Network, a decentralized computing platform, has released a report addressing the concerns of its community following the transfer of more than 135,000 ETH to centralized exchanges (CEXs). The transfer, worth approximately $337 million at the time, caused widespread speculation of a potential large-scale sell-off, raising alarms within the Golem community.

The Ethereum was sent to major exchanges, including Coinbase, Binance, and Bitfinex, sparking debates and anxieties across social media and forums, particularly among Golem’s community on Discord. However, the Golem team has reassured its users that the move was not an attempt to dump Ethereum but rather part of a staking test designed to ensure operational security and prevent spam interference on the network.

Golem’s official report, released on Sept. 18, clarified that the substantial movement of ETH was part of a carefully planned solo staking test. According to the report, the aim of the transfer was to create a controlled environment to evaluate and optimize staking operations, ensuring that Golem’s system remains secure and effective.

The Golem team stated: 

“Our objective was to create a controlled environment where we could monitor the impact of various factors on the staking-related processes.”

They further emphasized that utilizing centralized exchanges for this test allowed them to reduce the risks of external interference during staking, thus creating a stable and uninterrupted process. 

The ETH transfer saga began in July when Golem first deposited 29,000 ETH to various centralized exchanges, a move that initially sparked concerns about the network’s financial stability. At that time, many in the Golem community feared the transfers indicated an intent to liquidate large amounts of Ethereum, which could negatively impact the price of ETH and raise doubts about Golem’s financial strategy.

Frustrations mounted on social media platforms such as Discord, where community members openly criticized the lack of communication from the Golem team. Members questioned why CEXs were involved in what was supposed to be a solo staking process, and why the team had been slow to provide clear answers.

Some even accused Golem of evading critical questions, which only worsened the situation. The team’s promise to provide a detailed explanation later did little to ease the concerns, leading to even more speculation and negative sentiment.

The September report has since alleviated much of the community’s concern, but not before Golem’s initial lack of transparency left a lasting impression. One X user, who had closely followed the developments, noted that the clarification from Golem confirmed that the ETH transfers were not part of a sell-off. However, the user criticized the project for its delayed response, stating that “honest comms could have avoided this from the start.”

The timeline of events reveals that the report addressing the ETH transfers was initially promised in August, but it was not published until Sept. 18. This delay gave rise to further suspicions within the community, amplifying negative speculation about the project’s motives. The delayed communication also fueled unfounded rumors, which spread rapidly on social media platforms.

While Golem has since clarified that the funds were moved to ensure the security and efficiency of their staking process, the delay in communication led many to question the project’s commitment to transparency.

Solo Staking and the Use of CEXs

The use of centralized exchanges is often seen as contradictory in decentralized networks, where the ethos revolves around minimizing reliance on central entities. This is why the Golem community initially reacted negatively to the news. However, Golem’s report explains that the choice was a pragmatic one, aimed at reducing operational risks and ensuring a smoother staking process.

While Golem’s latest report has helped quell much of the fear and uncertainty that surrounded the ETH transfers, the incident serves as a valuable lesson for both Golem and other decentralized projects. Communication with the community is paramount, especially when significant financial transactions are involved.