More data this week – ING

The US Dollar (USD) is trading in mixed fashion and has not seen any follow-through selling from last Wednesday’s 50bp Federal Reserve rate cut, ING’s Chirs Turner notes.

More data and Fed speakers

“The US calendar sees a mix of activity and price data. So far investors have bought into the soft-landing narrative offered by Chair Jerome Powell last week. And instead of the 50bp rate cut spooking equity markets, key benchmarks have continued to push higher. When it comes to activity, investors will be looking at today’s S&P US PMI readings, consumer confidence data (Tuesday and Friday) and housing data (Wednesday).”

“None of these readings are expected to have fallen off a cliff. Friday then sees the August core PCE deflator reading, expected at an on target 0.2% month-on-month with a risk of 0.1% MoM. Interestingly our favorite Fed speaker, Christopher Waller, said he voted for a 50bp rate cut last week because inflation data was coming in too low. A 0.1% core PCE on Friday could potentially trigger another leg lower in US rates and the USD.”

“In addition, we have lots of Fed speakers this week including some prepared remarks from Jay Powell on Thursday. Markets currently price in 35bp of cuts for the November Fed meeting and a further 30/32bp for the December meeting. We doubt this week’s US data will shift that pricing dramatically but nonetheless, DXY should continue to trade not far from major support at 100.”