Slowing demand weighs on prices – TDS

Crude oil prices at $70/bbl may well feel overdone, but there are no signs of a turnaround in the demand sentiment just yet, TDS Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

Market’s undertone is not supportive for a sustainable rebound

“The cross-section of commodities returns tells a bleaker picture of commodity demand, with no signs of a recovery despite the strength implied by risk markets. For energy markets, however, the risk is two-fold as slowing demand not only weighs on prices through its traditional implications, but also implies that the substantial amount of supply risk premia embedded into prices should be eroded further.”

“The OPEC+ group of producers’ decision to delay their planned supply increases has not been sufficient to put a halt to this trend, and further slowing in global demand risks catalyzing a more substantial repricing in this context. CTAs may well be on the bid, but the market’s undertone is not yet supportive for a sustainable rebound.”