Stronger August headline exports limited boost to outlook – UOB Group

Aug export growth accelerated to 8.7% y/y (Bloomberg est: 6.6%, Jul: 7.0%) in USDterms and 8.4% y/y in CNY-terms (Jul: 6.5%), UOB Group economist Ho Woei Chen notes.

Positive headline exports but weaker imports raised caution

“China reported stronger export growth in Aug but outlook was weighed by flat import growth and emerging signs of weaker external demand.”

“In volume terms, China’s commodities demand has remained resilient despite signs of slowing economic momentum. Imports of refined petroleum products, LPG and soya beans strengthened noticeably in Aug. Imports of iron and copper moderated compared to the year-ago period, which is indicative of weaker construction activity.”

“The low base effect is likely to continue to support both the export and import growth for the rest of the year. We expect China’s export and import growth in 2024 at 5.0% (2023: -4.6%) and 4.5% (2023: -5.5%) respectively.”