Odds Slim that Crypto Will Feature in Tonight’s Debate

All eyes are on tonight’s Presidential debate. The odds that the candidates will discuss crypto are slim, but odds are high for the trading of insults such as “Comrade Kamala” and “Convicted Felon”.

Bitcoin fluctuated between $57,000 and $58,000 during European morning trading, gaining approximately 3% in the last 24 hours. However, Bitcoin remains 3% lower in September and still more than 20% below its all-time high of $73,000 back in March.

Source: BNC Bitcoin Liquid Index

A positive sign came from the Spot Bitcoin ETFs which registered net inflows for the first time in over a week, with $28.7 million on Monday. Despite this upward movement, NYDIG has cautioned that “near-term catalysts” for Bitcoin are limited, noting that while September has historically been a weak month for Bitcoin, but October tends to perform better.

Betting on the Debate

We’re just hours away from the much anticipated Trump Vs Harris debate. The 90-minute debate is scheduled to begin at 9pm ET on Tuesday and takes place at Philadelphia’s National Constitution Center, an institution dedicated to the study of the US constitution.

On Polymarket’s prediction market for “What will Trump say at the debate?” traders believe there’s a low 18% chance Trump might mention cryptocurrency.

In contrast, more pressing topics like “abortion” are predicted to have an 83% chance of being mentioned by Trump. His use of the phrase “Comrade Kamala” is also considered likely at 44%.

Source: Polymarket

Vice President Harris is seen as even less likely to mention Bitcoin or crypto, with only a 9% chance, while “abortion” is the top contender at 88%, followed by “convicted felon” at 57%.

Source: Polymarket

Trump has actively courted crypto voters and donations this year, while Harris’ campaign has been more restrained, representing an administration perceived as crypto-hostile. Prediction markets, like Polymarket, allow participants to wager on various outcomes, from elections to cultural events. Supporters argue these markets offer more accurate forecasting than polls due to the financial stake involved, while critics liken them to gambling.

Election betting has surged, and Polymarket has captured much of the action, despite being required to block U.S. users after a regulatory settlement. Friday marked the platform’s busiest day, with $34 million in trading volume.

Single Issue Crypto Voter

Bitcoin’s regulatory future could still play a pivotal role in the U.S. presidential election as more crypto investors consider candidates’ positions on the industry.

According to a recent report by Gemini, 73% of U.S. crypto holders said a candidate’s stance on crypto would influence their vote, with 37% saying it would have a significant impact.

Source: Gemini

The survey, conducted between May and June 2024, underscores crypto’s increasing relevance in U.S. elections. Regulatory uncertainty has become a greater concern for investors, with 38% of respondents citing it as a barrier to entering crypto, up from 28% in 2022. While overall exposure to crypto among U.S. adults remains modest, the number of crypto owners increased slightly from 20% in 2022 to 21% in 2024, with past owners rising from 5% to 14%.