Shorts, paring back – Rabobank

USD net long positions have increased for the second week in a row. EUR net long positions have increased for the third consecutive week. GBP net long positions have increased for the third consecutive week, JPY net long positions have increased for the third consecutive week, Rabobank FX analysts note.

USD net longs increase

USD net long positions have increased for the second week in a row, driven by a decrease in short positions. Stronger-than-expected second estimates for US Q2 personal consumption (2.9% vs est. 2.2%) and GDP (2.0% vs est. 2.8%) on August 29th drove a 4.75bp increase in the 10yr. Traders are pricing in a 32bp cut at the Fed September meeting at the time of writing.

EUR net long positions have increased for the third consecutive week, driven by a decrease in short positions. Eurozone core CPI inflation registered in line with expectations at 0.0% m/m and 2.8% y/y, while the unemployment rate for July registered 6.4 % versus estimates for 6.5%. OIS pricing is implying a 25bps cut at the September 12th ECB meeting.

GBP net long positions have increased for the third consecutive week, driven by a decrease in short positions. GBP remains the best performing G10 currency against USD year-to-date, returning 4.09%. JPY net long positions have increased for the third consecutive week, driven by a decrease in short positions. JPY long positions are at their highest level since February 2021, and USD/JPY is trading near yearly lows at 142.