Back to the downside of the trade – DBS

EUR/USD appreciated by 0.2% to 1.1072, brushing aside the victory of Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the eastern state of Thuringia, but now it’s back below 1.1048 at 1.1035, DBS Senior FX Strategist Philip Wee notes.

ECB to join Fed in lowering rates.

“The Euro had depreciated in the last three days of the previous week, dropping to 1.1048 from 1.1184, amid expectations of a second interest rate cut at the European Central Bank meeting on September 12.”

“Following the Eurozone CPI inflation decline to 2.2% YoY in August, down from 2.6% in July, the OIS market has priced in a 94% chance of a 25 bps cut in the deposit facility rate to 3.50%.”

“Last week, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane cautioned that the mission to return to the 2% target was ‘not yet secure’, signalling concerns with the market pricing in a neutral rate of 2.00-2.50% by mid-2025.”