Can Bitcoin Break Its Historical Bearish Trend?

• September has been Bitcoin’s worst-performing month, with an average return of -5.36%.
• Bitcoin saw positive returns in September only four times in the last 13 years.
• Upcoming events, including the FOMC meeting, may affect Bitcoin’s performance this month.

September has historically been Bitcoin’s weakest month, with an average return of -5.36%. In the past 13 years, Bitcoin has posted positive returns only four times in September. However, market watchers are speculating that upcoming events could change Bitcoin’s bearish trajectory this month.

September: Bitcoin’s Historically Weak Month

Bitcoin has shown a consistent pattern of underperformance in September. Historical data reveals that Bitcoin has experienced negative returns in nine out of the last 13 Septembers, making it one of the worst months for the cryptocurrency with an average negative return of 5.36%. 

A table posted by Wise Advice on X illustrates this trend, showing that Bitcoin recorded positive returns only four times in September. The periods include 2012, with a 19.8% positive gain; 2015, with a modest 2.6% growth; 2016 (+6.5%); and 2023 (+4%). 

In most other years, September returns were negative, with notable declines like -18.3% in 2018, -13.2% in 2014, and -29.9% in 2013. This consistent decline has raised concerns about another potentially bearish September.

Despite the historical trend, Wise Advice points to upcoming events that could positively impact Bitcoin’s performance this September. Two key events are drawing attention: the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where a potential rate cut could be announced, and news related to Binance founder Changpeng Zhao’s (CZ) possible release from jail.

Impact of the FOMC Meeting on Bitcoin

The FOMC meeting, scheduled for later this month, is particularly important. If the Federal Reserve decides to cut interest rates, it could boost Bitcoin and other risk assets by making borrowing cheaper and encouraging investment in speculative assets. Historically, rate cuts have often led to bullish movements in the cryptocurrency market as investors seek higher returns outside of traditional financial markets.

Meanwhile, reports about CZ’s potential release from jail could also impact the market. As the former CEO of Binance, one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, news about him is widely followed, given his prominence in crypto in the industry. 

Market Outlook for the Remainder of 2024

Bitcoin enters September with a downward trend, its historically weakest month. Currently trading at $57,873, the entire cryptocurrency market is also experiencing a downturn. Ethereum and Binance Coin (BNB) are trading lower, and other notable cryptocurrencies like Solana and Shiba Inu are also facing losses.

However, as the final quarter of the year approaches, there’s optimism that a bullish trend could emerge. Notably, the current bull market gained momentum in Q4 2023 and continued into Q1 2024, when BTC reached a new all-time high.