Cautious optimism on disinflation – ING

For the second consecutive month, there is some tentatively encouraging news on inflation for the Reserve Bank of Australia. Monthly headline CPI eased from 3.8% to 3.5% year-on-year in July. That was above the 3.4% consensus, but the slowdown in the trimmed mean (i.e. core) from 4.1% to 3.8% made up for that, ING’s FX strategist Francesco Pesole notes.

AUD to test December-2023 highs at 0.6850

“The AUD followed Australian bond yields higher right after the release, but is now trading back below 0.680. There are reasons to be cautiously optimistic on Australian disinflation at this point, but we still see market pricing for one RBA cut in December as too dovish and think easing will only start in 1Q25. Remember that RBA rates are at 4.35%, which is still below the rates expected of the Fed and the RBNZ (both 4.50%) by year-end.”

“Some short-term USD rebound can put some pressure on AUD, but it seems too early to rule out that the 0.6850 December-2023 highs will be tested.”