Gap Between Bitcoin and NASDAQ Narrows as YTD Gains Reach 34% and 20%

The performance of Bitcoin has seen a notable shift in 2024, with Ecoinometrics reporting a closer gap between Bitcoin and the NASDAQ. 

Year-to-date, Bitcoin is up by 34%, while the NASDAQ has gained 20%, reflecting a narrowing trend between the two. Despite the surge early in the year, Bitcoin has encountered stagnation and increased volatility, particularly since March.

However, key economic drivers and market influences are keeping both assets in focus as the year progresses.

Performance Divergence and Early-Year Activity

For context, at the start of 2024, both Bitcoin and the NASDAQ exhibited a gradual uptrend. Bitcoin experienced a more impressive rise between late January and early February, largely attributed to the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States. This momentum catapulted Bitcoin’s returns to over 60% by early March. 

Conversely, the NASDAQ maintained a more moderate yet consistent upward trajectory, trailing behind Bitcoin’s rapid ascent. Despite its slower pace, the NASDAQ remained stable, closing with a YTD gain of 20% to date, though the summer months presented challenges for both assets.

Mid-Year Consolidation and Bitcoin’s Stagnation

From March onwards, Bitcoin’s performance has been marked by repeated cycles of declines and recoveries. While it remained ahead of the NASDAQ, its gains steadily decreased from the March peak.

This period of consolidation reflects a lack of major catalysts for Bitcoin, with market volatility persisting throughout the summer. 

Notably, the NASDAQ also experienced difficulties, particularly with declines from June to August. Both assets entered August with positive YTD performances, though their future paths appear uncertain.

Potential for Volatility and Outlook for Bitcoin

As the year advances, attention is now turning to macroeconomic factors. Ecoinometrics highlights the Federal Reserve’s readiness to cut interest rates, a move generally seen as favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin.

Yet, recession warnings within the U.S. economy persist, casting uncertainty over Bitcoin’s trajectory for the remainder of the year. 

Meanwhile, seasoned analysts, such as Peter Brandt, indicate that Bitcoin is currently undergoing the longest stretch without reaching a new all-time high post-halving.

Despite this, some market watchers, including Thomas Lee from Fundstrat Global Advisors, foresee Bitcoin soaring to higher levels, possibly hitting $200,000 or more, citing cyclical patterns and global liquidity dynamics.