Balance of payments picture is supportive – ING

There was some supportive current account data for the eurozone. In fact, June’s current account surplus was a monthly record at over EUR50bn, ING’s FX strategist Chris Turner notes.

EUR/USD may as well move sharply higher

“Eurozone balance of payments data has swung very much in favour of the Euro over the last two years and the basic balance now looks the highest on record. The European Central Bank’s trade-weighted Euro is now the highest on record too. Apologies for the obvious comment, but were it not for the mighty dollar, EUR/USD would now be a lot higher.”

“EUR/USD is now running into some serious medium-term resistance in the 1.1110/1140 area. Maybe this proves the top of the range before elections in November. All we are saying is that if resistance breaks, very low realised volatility levels warn that EUR/USD could move sharply higher.”

“And we are reluctant to fight this EUR/USD bull trend ahead of a slowing US economy and the first Fed cut in September.”