Donald Trump Now Leads Kamala Harris by 5% in Polymarket Odds

Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris by 5% in Polymarket betting odds for the 2024 election, fueled by his anti-CBDC stance and crypto support.

Recent data from the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket suggests that Donald Trump currently holds a 52% chance of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, leading Kamala Harris by 5%. This comes after Harris overtook the GOP candidate days ago.

With more than $83 million wagered on Trump’s victory, his odds reflect strong backing from bettors, who priced his chances at 51.7¢ per “Yes” bet. Harris, with a 47% chance, follows closely behind, despite having over $75 million in wagers. Her “Yes” price of 47¢ indicates a competitive yet slightly less optimistic view from the betting market.

Trump’s Lead and Crypto Sentiments

Trump’s lead in the betting markets is largely attributed to recent campaign developments and policy promises.

Notably, his opposition to the implementation of a CBDC resonates with many voters concerned about potential government overreach. Trump’s promises to prevent what he describes as “government tyranny” through digital currency have given him a slight edge in the polls. 

His potential collaboration with high-profile figures like Elon Musk further fueled speculation. The tech billionaire responded positively to Trump’s suggestion of offering him an advisory role within his administration.

Harris’ Campaign Faces Crypto Backlash

Meanwhile, Harris’ odds have faced volatility, particularly following her recent policy announcements. Notably, her campaign remained silent on cryptocurrency, leading to a noticeable drop in her chances.

Some experts argue that her association with advisors tied to the cryptocurrency industry, like David Plouffe and Gene Sperling, may not be enough to sway markets in her favor. 

Further complicating matters, her endorsement of a controversial tax on unrealized capital gains has drawn criticism. Critics, such as Cardano founder and co-founder of IOG Charles Hoskinson pointed out the potential negative impact on the middle class and the broader economy.

For context, Kamala Harris had endorsed a controversial tax on unrealized capital gains, which would require taxpayers to pay taxes on gains they have not yet cashed out, such as a Bitcoin increase from $50,000 to $70,000, even without selling the asset.

25 percent tax on unrealized gains is the most insane, unconstitutional theft ever proposed by any political party. You didn’t make any money. You have no access to these “gains.” But somehow, a government official will just invent a profit and send you a tax bill. This is theft https://t.co/5S77p8t8HW

— Charles Hoskinson (@IOHK_Charles) August 20, 2024

Honskinson expressed strong opposition to the proposed tax, calling it unconstitutional and labeling it as theft. He argues that the tax targets profit that individuals have not yet realized, with no access to the gains, yet still subjects them to taxation as if the profits were already made. 

Political Tensions Surround CBDC Debate

As the election nears, the CBDC debate continues to fuel tensions within the GOP. Trump’s stance has garnered support from voters wary of government surveillance through digital currencies. 

At the same time, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has taken similar measures, preemptively prohibiting CBDC use in his state. The Federal Reserve, however, remains undecided, with Chairman Jerome Powell emphasizing that any decision on a digital dollar would require approval from Congress and the executive branch.