The oil market could see an increase in supply from OPEC+ in the fourth quarter. At least it was announced in June that the voluntary production cuts that have been in place since the beginning of the year would be gradually withdrawn over a period of 12 months from October onwards, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
Brent oil at $85 per barrel at the end of the year
“Given the current demand trend, the oil market would then be at risk of oversupply from the fourth quarter, or next year at the latest. To prevent this, OPEC+ will have little choice but to postpone the expansion of production and hope for a revival in demand. On the oil market, there are also geopolitical risks due to the tensions in the Middle East.”
“So far, there have been no supply disruptions despite the repeated attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels on cargo ships and oil tankers in the Red Sea. However, this could change in the event of a direct confrontation between Iran and Israel. This would be particularly true if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz were to be disrupted. Almost a third of seaborne oil supplies and around a fifth of the global oil supply are transported through this strait.”
“In contrast to the Red Sea, rerouting via other transport routes is not possible or only possible to a very limited extent, which would result in a noticeable tightening of the oil market. We consider the risk of this to be low. But, a certain risk premium on the oil price is justified. For this reason, we see the price of Brent oil at $85 per barrel at the end of the year as somewhat higher than the subdued fundamental data would otherwise justify.”
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-opec-set-to-postpone-the-expansion-of-production-commerzbank-202408201130