Australian Dollar steady as monetary policy divergences favor the Aussie

• AUD/USD showed a significant increase of 0.75%, rising to 0.6720.
• The continued hawkish stance of the RBA supports the Aussie against its peers.
• Intense dovish bets on the Fed weigh on the USD.

On Monday, the AUD/USD is gaining significant traction mainly due to a weaker USD on a quiet Monday. In addition, the monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve (Fed), set to start cutting in September, versus the reluctance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut is also pushing the pair upward.

Despite the mixed Australian economic outlook and the high inflation, the RBA’s persistent hawkish stance has led to markets pricing in just 25 basis points of easing for 2024, which seems to be making the Aussie gain more traction.

Daily digest market movers: Aussie extends gains through RBA’s hawkish guidance

• Aussie showed signs of gaining strength or at least maintaining its current levels, largely due to the hawkish guidance by the RBA.
• Despite the falling trend in iron ore prices, the RBA’s persistent hawkish stance is providing significant support to the Australian Dollar.
• The markets are now looking forward to Tuesday’s discourse on the last RBA meeting’s minutes, which could influence the pair’s future trajectory.
• With a weakened USD due to a quiet Monday session, the AUD/USD pair has the potential for further upside facilitated by the monetary policy difference.

AUD/USD technical outlook: AUD/USD buyers prevail, bullish outlook persists

From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair has shown an inclination toward an upward trajectory based on the daily indicators. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), an oscillator that denotes market momentum, has been fluctuating around the mid-levels but has recently risen to 62, implying increased bullish sentiment. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) further validates this bullish bias, evident from its rising green bars.

As the pair inches upward, it might face resistance around the 0.6750 mark, a level that presents a tough ceiling. Support is seen at 0.6730, 0.6715 and 0.6700.