Trump’s Odds Surge to 49% on Polymarket Despite Harris Hype

Former President Donald Trump’s odds of winning the US election have soared on decentralized prediction platform Polymarket after trailing behind Vice President Kamala Harris over the past week.

The economic ideas of Kamala Harris are being criticized by economists, who question their practicality.

Data shows that the Democratic representative’s odds hit a record high of 54% on Friday after plummeting to 49% as of today. The two major candidates are now tied on Polymarket.

Markets Aren’t Buying The Harris Hype Machine

Polymarket has seen $633 million in the national race. Trump currently leads in terms of bets, with approximately $80 million in cash, while bets on Harris are around $71.4 million.

While Polymarket leans toward Trump, other prediction platforms show a different outcome. Rasmussen Research shows that Harris is slightly ahead of Trump in critical states, including Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Meanwhile, Harris also performs well on RealClearPolitics with an average lead of 1.5 points. The Economist’s polling average indicates she is up by 2.7 points.

According to Polymarket advisor Nate Silver’s election forecast model, Harris has a higher probability of winning the electoral college, with a 53.5% chance compared to Trump’s 45.9%. However, Silver noted that it was “basically 50/50” even though Harris holds a slightly stronger position.

Trump Looks Better Outside The Echo Chamber

Nate Cohn from the New York Times said there has been a recent shift in polling, with Harris ahead by two points. Apart from young, nonwhite, and female voters, the gains for Harris show some improvement among men and white voters, according to the analyst.

“In May, we had Trump ahead by five points across the battleground states. Right now, we have Harris ahead by two, so it’s a big seven-point swing. And we show outsized gains for Harris among young and nonwhite voters, and women, and we show smaller gains, but still some improvement, for Harris among men and white voters,” Cohn noted.

Harris’ odds have increased since her party started to show public support for the crypto industry.

A number of prominent Democratic figures, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, launched “Crypto4Harris,” a political initiative aimed at garnering support for the Vice President from the cryptocurrency community.

The event, with the participation of billionaire entrepreneur Mark Cuban, is part of ongoing efforts by the Democratic Party to improve its relationship with the sector after a period of skepticism.

Since President Joe Biden announced his departure from the election race, the Democratic Party, now led by Biden’s successor Harris, has ramped up efforts to reshape its image as pro-crypto.

The goal is to demonstrate that Harris’ potential administration would be more crypto-friendly compared to the current administration’s regulatory stance. The strategy is particularly critical since Trump, Harris’ biggest competitor, has repeatedly voiced support for the industry.

Schumer also pointed to the potential for bipartisan legislation on cryptocurrency regulation, showing that his party is committed to creating a more favorable regulatory environment for digital assets.

However, Harris has faced criticism for her recent economic proposals. The plans, unveiled during a campaign event in North Carolina on Friday, included a federal ban on grocery price gouging, expanded tax credits for families, and assistance for first-time home buyers.

Critics, including GOP figures like Sen. JD Vance, have labeled her proposals unrealistic and unworkable. Economists have questioned the feasibility and effectiveness of Harris’ plans for addressing the root causes of inflation.

Trump’s odds of winning the election hit an all-time high of 72% on Polymarkt early last month, before declining to 46% on August 12. However, Trump started to regaing round against Harris after her speech on economic proposals. Traders likely bet on his prospective return to the White House.