Bitcoin’s Halving Year Trends Suggest Q4 Rally, But Bearish Risks Remain

Bitcoin’s price performance in 2024 has closely mirrored the trends observed during previous halving years, such as 2016 and 2020.

Historically, significant price surges have occurred in the fourth quarter, suggesting that if a rally is to happen, it may still be on the horizon.

However, there are lingering risks of further price corrections. The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, currently hovering around the BEAR phase (light blue area), adds to this uncertainty.

Moreover, funding rates for Bitcoin on Binance have hit the most negative levels year-to-date, signaling a potential bearish market sentiment in the short term. Binance, holding the largest share of open interest (OI), is a key player in this sentiment shift.

In recent developments, a fresh whale withdrew 533.5 BTC (worth $31 million) from Binance at an average price of $58,188 over the last five hours.

This movement is part of a broader trend this week, where six whales have collectively withdrawn 4,046 BTC and WBTC (valued at $239.5 million) from centralized exchanges (CEXs). This suggests that whales are actively accumulating Bitcoin despite the current market conditions.

Bitcoin Drop Signals Increased Selling Pressure 

Additionally, the transition from a bullish to a bearish phase in Bitcoin cycles often occurs when the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio drops below the 1-year Simple Moving Average (SMA). This shift became evident as Bitcoin’s price fell below $61,500, indicating that many investors who bought at higher levels are now in loss, potentially leading to increased selling pressure.

On August 15, the total net inflow into Bitcoin spot ETFs was $11.1116 million. However, Grayscale’s ETF GBTC saw an outflow of $25.0328 million, while its mini ETF BTC and Fidelity’s ETF FBTC recorded inflows of $13.6628 million and $16.2469 million, respectively. These mixed flows highlight the market’s ongoing uncertainty.

Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services.

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Source: https://nulltx.com/bitcoins-halving-year-trends-suggest-q4-rally-but-bearish-risks-remain/