Bitcoin’s price performance in 2024 has closely mirrored the trends observed during previous halving years, such as 2016 and 2020.
Historically, significant price surges have occurred in the fourth quarter, suggesting that if a rally is to happen, it may still be on the horizon.
#Bitcoin price performance in halving years:
– 2024 performance really similar to 2016 and 2020 so far.
– If the price is going to increase it will be in Q4. pic.twitter.com/WT8ER4zLL4— Julio Moreno (@jjcmoreno) August 15, 2024
However, there are lingering risks of further price corrections. The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, currently hovering around the BEAR phase (light blue area), adds to this uncertainty.
There is still risks of a further price correction.
Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator is hovering around the BEAR phase (light blue area). pic.twitter.com/qmGLJrD0nJ
— Julio Moreno (@jjcmoreno) August 15, 2024
Moreover, funding rates for Bitcoin on Binance have hit the most negative levels year-to-date, signaling a potential bearish market sentiment in the short term. Binance, holding the largest share of open interest (OI), is a key player in this sentiment shift.
$BTC funding rates have reached the highest level of negativity YTD on Binance
“Binance has the largest share of open interest (OI), this could indicate a bearish market sentiment for the short term.” – By @EgyHashX
Read more 👇https://t.co/lGCUSic8kl pic.twitter.com/bfCPAYy1Z8
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) August 16, 2024
In recent developments, a fresh whale withdrew 533.5 BTC (worth $31 million) from Binance at an average price of $58,188 over the last five hours.
This movement is part of a broader trend this week, where six whales have collectively withdrawn 4,046 BTC and WBTC (valued at $239.5 million) from centralized exchanges (CEXs). This suggests that whales are actively accumulating Bitcoin despite the current market conditions.
A fresh whale withdrew 533.5 $BTC ($31M) from #Binance at an average price of $58,188 in the past 5 hours!
Note that fresh whales seem to be actively accumulating #Bitcoin this week, with 6 whales withdrawing 4,046 $BTC and $WBTC ($239.5M) from CEXs.
Don’t want to miss the new… pic.twitter.com/4h3qnHy7Br
— Spot On Chain (@spotonchain) August 16, 2024
Bitcoin Drop Signals Increased Selling Pressure
Additionally, the transition from a bullish to a bearish phase in Bitcoin cycles often occurs when the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio drops below the 1-year Simple Moving Average (SMA). This shift became evident as Bitcoin’s price fell below $61,500, indicating that many investors who bought at higher levels are now in loss, potentially leading to increased selling pressure.
#Bitcoin cycle transitions from bullish to bearish often happen when the MVRV drops below the 1-year SMA.
This shift occurred as $BTC fell below $61,500, signaling that a significant amount of #BTC was bought above this level and is now in loss, potentially leading to heavy… pic.twitter.com/AOtffw16f3
— Ali (@ali_charts) August 16, 2024
On August 15, the total net inflow into Bitcoin spot ETFs was $11.1116 million. However, Grayscale’s ETF GBTC saw an outflow of $25.0328 million, while its mini ETF BTC and Fidelity’s ETF FBTC recorded inflows of $13.6628 million and $16.2469 million, respectively. These mixed flows highlight the market’s ongoing uncertainty.
On August 15, the total net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs was $11.1116 million. Grayscale ETF GBTC outflow was $25.0328 million, Grayscale mini ETF BTC inflow was $13.6628 million, and Fidelity ETF FBTC inflow was $16.2469 million. https://t.co/59u0BnEqLG
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) August 16, 2024
Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services.
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Source: https://nulltx.com/bitcoins-halving-year-trends-suggest-q4-rally-but-bearish-risks-remain/