Trump’s Odds Drop to 44% as Harris Gains Momentum in Polymarket Predictions

In contrast to the upward momentum recorded by Kamala Harris, GOP candidate Donald Trump’s chances have fallen sharply to 44%, down from a previous high of 72%. 

The shift marks a considerable reduction in market confidence, which might be tied to recent political developments or his perceived disengagement from key issues such as crypto. Notably, Trump’s “Yes” price on Polymarket has dropped to 44.2¢, while his “No” price has risen to 56¢, further signaling a lack of confidence in his campaign.

However, despite this decrease, Trump still commands the largest volume of bets, with over $75.6 million backing his return to office, showing continued belief in his potential victory.

On #Polymarket, #Harris‘s chance in the US Presidential Election surged to 54%, while #Trump‘s chance dropped from 72% to 44%.

Trader”serus” is the biggest Yes holder of #Harris on #Polymarket, holding 2,427,229 shares($1.31M), with an unrealized profit of $374K!… pic.twitter.com/Hq7pi0Si3r

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) August 16, 2024

Growing Support for Crypto Among Democrats

Harris’s increasing odds coincide with growing support for crypto within the Democratic Party. On August 14, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, along with other prominent Democrats, publicly supported crypto regulation during the Crypto4Harris event. Schumer emphasized the need for regulatory clarity and bipartisan cooperation in shaping the industry’s future. 

This support for crypto appears to be positively impacting Harris’s standing on prediction markets like Polymarket. Meanwhile, Trump’s odds have dropped to their lowest level since April 25, which may be connected to his recent interview with Elon Musk, during which he did not address crypto or Bitcoin, despite Polymarket users betting over $1.3 million on the topic.

Positions on Harris and Trump

Polymarket’s data also reveals significant activity surrounding the 2024 election, with large sums being placed on both candidates. One notable participant, “serus,” holds a substantial position backing Harris’s win.

With over 2.4 million shares purchased at an average price of 38¢ per share, the current value of their position has increased significantly as Harris’s probability has risen to 54%.

The market price for these shares now stands at 54¢, giving “serus” an unrealized profit of $373,951, representing a 40.08% gain on their investment. In total, their positions across various markets amount to over $1.3 million, reflecting their high confidence in Harris’s potential to win the election.

The overall volume traded by “serus” reaches $3.48 million, indicating substantial activity within Polymarket’s prediction markets. Despite Harris gaining traction, Trump continues to hold the majority of bets, with over $75.6 million invested in his possible victory. Meanwhile, Harris’s total bets have reached $66.9 million.

Crypto Exec Endorsements of Harris

In related developments, Uphold co-founder J.P. Theriot recently voiced his support for Kamala Harris, making him the first major crypto executive to endorse the Democratic candidate. In a lengthy post on X (formerly Twitter), Theriot argued that former President Donald Trump’s promises regarding the crypto industry were largely unfulfilled. 

Theriot further noted that Harris, being younger than both Trump and Joe Biden, may have a better grasp of emerging technologies. However, Theriot stressed that his endorsement was a personal decision and did not reflect the official stance of Uphold as a company.