new highs before the halving?

The hypothesis is now circulating insistently that before the April halving, the price of Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs. 

The current all-time high is still around $69,000 in November 2021, and in fact this is the amount that is taken as a reference by this hypothesis. 

Actually, there are a couple of other figures that could also be taken as a reference, but they would be lower than the historical maximum. 

The highest price of Bitcoin in the year of the halving

There has already been a previous year in which both a halving and a new all-time high price of Bitcoin occurred. 

The first halving occurred in November 2012, but everything that happened before is usually not taken as a reference for analysis. 

The next all-time high was recorded in November 2013, when the price first rose above $1,100.

Until the halving in July 2016, the price did not return to those levels, not even in the remaining part of the year. It approached $1,100 only in January 2017, when the new major bull run began. 

The highest following was recorded in December 2017, at almost $20,000, but already in the year of the subsequent halving, 2020, the price of Bitcoin reached new highs above $30,000.

The next peak was reached in November 2021, at over $69,000, so something similar could also happen in 2020, the year of the last halving, and return to the highs in this 2024. 

However, the big difference is that it has never happened in the past that after a halving, the post-halving bubble, and the subsequent bear market, the price of Bitcoin returned to its highs before the next halving. 

Therefore, the circulating hypothesis is that of a first absolute time, with the hypothetical reaching of $69,000 before mid-April. The next halving, in fact, should take place in the second half of April, in less than two months.

Bitcoin (BTC): The hypothesis of new highs for Bitcoin before the halving

At this moment in the Bitcoin market, there seems to be FOMO in full effect. 

These are not yet levels comparable to those, for example, at the beginning of 2021, and the Fear&Greed index has jumped just above 82 but still below 90.

However, it must be remembered that this index measures the performance of the previous day, so it does not yet take into account what has happened today. It is possible that tomorrow’s data may approach 90.

These data seem to suggest that a correction could also be triggered at any moment, perhaps after the possible overcoming of the psychological threshold of $60,000. In that case, in fact, many could decide to take profit and sell BTC maybe purchased in the past at a price higher than that threshold. 

But there is still more than a month and a half left until the halving, so even in case of a correction above $60,000 between the end of February and the beginning of March, the hypothesis of new highs would not be invalidated. A heavy retracement would be needed to invalidate it. 

The fact is that markets have started pricing in the halving a few weeks ago, triggering a mini bull run that has sparked FOMO. In this perspective, it is difficult to imagine that a sort of sell the news could happen even before the halving, so it seems that we have to wait until the end of April for a real retracement. 

The highest historical records already made

This reasoning, however, only works if we consider the price of Bitcoin in US dollars or euros, because instead in other currencies the all-time highs have already been recorded in recent days. 

In dollars BTC is only 14% away from the ATH, but for example in Japanese Yen the ATH was recorded today. In Euro it is already very close, so much so that in case of exceeding $60,000 the new ATH would probably be recorded in the European currency. The same goes for British pounds, while for the Chinese yuan the ATH was recorded today just above the 2021 record. 

All this makes the hypothesis of a new all-time high even more plausible in dollars. 

The altseason

There also seem to be signs of a possible new altseason already.

With the price of Bitcoin approaching its highs, many may decide they want to temporarily convert BTC into altcoins to try to maximize their profits. 

Recently, the spread between the financing rates of BTC perpetual futures and ETH perpetual futures has collapsed, indicating an increase in risk appetite among investors.

Actually, the price of Ethereum has also risen a lot recently, even though Bitcoin’s dominance is close to the highs of recent years. 

So the overall performance of altcoins, with some exceptions, in these last few days is lower than that of Bitcoin, but if the rise of BTC were to slow down or stop, the altcoins could start to rise. 

It is important to remember that something similar also happened at the beginning of 2021, with Bitcoin hitting a new ATH in mid-April, while altcoins, including Ethereum, in early May.