Lack of immediate bullish catalysts despite already-adjusted growth expectations – ANZ

Significant drivers for a strong  Euro (EUR) recovery are absent in the near term, economists at ANZ Bank say.

ECB to initiate rate cuts by early Q2

Current sentiment and disinflation trends in the Euro Area have largely been priced into the EUR, offering some stability but lacking immediate upside momentum.

Core Euro Area inflation’s monthly increase contrasts with a yearly easing trend, suggesting continued disinflation. This trajectory, coupled with decelerating growth, is expected to prompt the European Central Bank (ECB) to initiate rate cuts by early Q2, slightly ahead of the Federal Reserve’s anticipated Q3 cuts.

The EUR’s near-term outlook is closely tied to USD movements. The timing and pace of ECB vs. Fed rate adjustments, highly contingent on forthcoming economic data, will be critical in shaping EUR/USD rate differentials and the Euro’s trajectory.