Geopolitical risks have clearly increased. Will geopolitical events derail the recovery in 2024 and 2025? Economists at Citigroup analyze geopolitical tensions.
Present geopolitical tensions should not prevent corporate profits from rising in 2024-2025
A study of past geopolitical and military incidents since 1941 reveals that most events have only had a limited impact on markets. The few exceptions, Pearl Harbor, and the Arab Oil Embargo, significantly altered the path of the economy.
Present geopolitical tensions shouldn’t prevent corporate profits from rising in 2024-2025. So far, the events in the Middle East have impacted shipping costs, but not end prices, indicating that supply chains have been able to compensate for the disruption.
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/geopolitics-are-unlikely-to-derail-the-recovery-in-2024-and-2025-citi-202402071151