A March FOMC rate cut is unlikely

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell discussed inflation risks, expected rate cuts, and the banking system with CBS News’s 60 Minutes this Sunday.

Key quotes

“With economy strong, we feel we can approach rate cut timing question carefully.”

“Confidence is rising, but want more confidence before taking ‘very important step’ of starting rate cuts.”

“Making good progress on inflation.”

“Could move sooner if we saw labor market weakness or inflation ‘really persuasively’ coming down.”

“More persistent inflation could mean a later move.”

“Repeats expectation that March meeting likely too soon to have confidence to start rate cuts.”

“There is no ‘easy, simple, obvious path’.”

“Expects inflation will continue to move down in the first six months of this year due to base effects.”

“Also expects 12-month inflation readings to fall over course of this year.”

“Asked about policymaker forecasts in December for year-end rate policy level of 4.6%, says nothing since then leads me to think people would dramatically change forecasts.”

“Almost all 19 policymakers see it appropriate to cut rates this year

We do not take politics into our decision-making.”

“In hindsight would have been better to tighten policy earlier.”

“Doesn’t see elevated possibility of recession.”

“Doesn’t see commercial real estate loans as the makings of a crisis as seen in the past.”

“China problems unlikely to affect US economy may feel some impacts ‘a bit, but they shouldn’t be large’.”

“Geopolitical risks stand as largest near-term risks, but more for other parts of the world than the US.”

Market reaction

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading higher by 0.13% on the day at 104.04, as of writing.