What happens to MATIC when Polygon’s AggLayer goes live

• MATIC might slip to $0.68 irrespective of the forthcoming update.
• Holders have an average profit of 31.85% but it is not time to go long.

Like most cryptocurrencies, Polygon [MATIC] has experienced a significant price decline in the last seven days. At press time, MATIC changed hands at $0.72, down 16.39% in the past week.

However, the underwhelming price action has not stopped Polygon Labs from going ahead with its set-out plans. On the 24th of January, Polygon posted that it would launch the  “AggLayer” in February.

Liquidity isn’t a guarantee for a price increase

For the uninformed, the team describes AggLayer as a way to unify cross-chain liquidity in the ecosystem. The project also noted that the AggLayer would be an integral part of Polygon 2.0 which has been in the works for a while.

But will the development bring any change to MATIC? Well, in some cases, developments like this offer a positive reaction from the native tokens. However, others either lead to drawdowns or sideways movement.

From a technical point of view, MATIC risked another decline. This was based on the indications shown by the Exponential Moving Average (EMA). 

At press time, MATIC was positioned below the 20 EMA (blue) and 50 EMA (yellow). While the 20 EMA was at $0.73, the 50 EMA closed at $0.76. The crossover is considered bearish. So, MATIC could drop below the $0.70 region in the short term.

Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was 42.50 at press time. The indicator’s inability to reach the 50.00 midpoint suggests that buyers’ presence was not enough to push MATIC upwards.

If sellers continue to dominate the market, then MATIC’s next movement could end up at $0.70. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) had flipped negative. This indicated that bullish momentum could return in MATIC’s favor soon.

Source: TradingView

If that happens, then MATIC might retest $0.75. But if the MACD reading does not grow, a drawdown as low as $0.68 could be plausible.

“Long not the token”

Furthermore, on-chain data from Santiment showed that the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio had increased to 31.85%. This ratio evaluates the tops and bottoms of a cryptocurrency.

It also shows the average profit/loss of all tokens in circulation. So, the ratio above means that if all MATIC holders sell, they would make an average profit of 31.85% on their buys.

Read Polygon’s [MATIC] Price Prediction 2024-2025

At the same time, the hike does not seem good for the price action. This is because it shows that the market is a little bit overheated. So, it might not be a good time to open long MATIC positions. 

Source: Santiment

However, if MATIC’s price decreases, the MVRV ratio would also follow. Should this be the case, traders should be on the lookout for entries for spot trades or find a position to long the token.