CAD to underperform peers like the JPY, EUR, AUD – TDS

The Bank of Canada stayed the course and held the overnight rate at 5.00%. The statement delivered a mostly hawkish tone. USD/CAD edged higher also propelled by the better-than-expected US PMIs. Economists at TD Securities analyze Loonie’s outlook.

BoC still concerned about risks to outlook for core inflation

BoC’s statement came in on the slightly hawkish side with concerns about the strength and persistence of core inflation. However, Governor Macklem’s prepared remarks for the presser seemed more balanced where he stated that while rate hikes cannot be completely ruled out, the discussion is now more about how long to keep policy rates where they are (and hence laying the groundwork for future cuts).

USD/CAD moved higher as US PMIs surprised to the upside and given the relatively more balanced tone of the presser. Markets had recently priced out BoC cuts and might have been expecting the central banks to push back on any talk of easing given the recent strength in wages and inflation.

We continue to expect CAD to underperform peers like the JPY, EUR, and AUD. This is based on Canada’s exposure to a slowing US, upcoming mortgage resets, weaker growth profile and less support from oil prices.