The narrative of global economic supremacy is witnessing a dramatic shift. Contrary to popular perception, China’s economy, when measured accurately, has not only caught up with but overtaken the United States. This development, significant yet understated, marks a pivotal moment in the balance of global economic power.
Rethinking Economic Comparisons
Recent reports based on market exchange rates paint a misleading picture of the US economy’s dominance. For instance, consider the Financial Times’ reporting on the US’s impressive annualized growth rate of 5.2% in the third quarter.
However, when we analyze the US economic performance in November, converting the GDP to euros or renminbi using market exchange rates, it suggests an alarming annualized shrinkage of around 30%.
This anomaly is primarily due to the near 3% fall in the US dollar’s value during the month. Such market exchange rate-based evaluations are fashionable but flawed. Similar misconceptions arose with the UK and German economies post-Brexit, skewed by sterling’s relative decline.
The European Council on Foreign Relations stirred further confusion by claiming the EU had a larger economy than the US in 2008, a statement rooted in the US dollar’s fluctuating value.
China’s Ascendancy in the Global Economy
China’s economic ascent becomes apparent when we shift our focus to purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates. PPP offers a more realistic measure by comparing the goods and services money can buy in different countries.
This approach reveals that China’s GDP surpassed that of the US around the time Donald Trump aimed to “make America great again.” Currently, China’s economy is approximately 22% larger than that of the US according to the latest IMF data.
Supporting this claim, China’s electricity generation, a key indicator of economic activity, overtook that of the US in 2010. From 2016 to 2022, a period where China was presumed to be lagging, its electricity generation spiked by 45%, while the US’s growth remained relatively flat. This evidence challenges the perception of China’s economic stagnation in comparison to the US.
The reluctance of both the US and China to acknowledge this shift is rooted in political and economic considerations. The US, akin to the UK’s past reluctance to accept its diminished top economic status, may be in denial.
For China, underplaying its economic prowess helps it shirk responsibilities for global issues like climate change and debt relief. Meanwhile, in Europe, acknowledging economic backsliding can be a catalyst for urgent reforms.
It’s a psychological game; if the European Central Bank were to hike interest rates to strengthen the euro substantially, the EU could temporarily claim the title of the world’s largest economy at market exchange rates. However, this could lead to severe economic repercussions, a reality that belies the superficial victory.
So, the narrative that China’s economy is still playing catch-up with the US is a misinterpretation of the real economic scenario. When judged by PPP, a more reliable yardstick of economic might, China has already moved ahead.
This revelation is more than a statistical adjustment; it’s a wake-up call to the global economic order, signaling a significant shift in the balance of power.
As China continues to expand its economic influence, it’s time for the world to recalibrate its understanding and approach to the new economic realities.
Source: https://www.cryptopolitan.com/chinas-economy-is-still-bigger-than-the-uss/